Martha Gimbel
@marthagimbel
Executive director @the_budget_lab, former @whitehousecea, @indeed, @jecdems, @USDOL, among others. Personal opinions.
"In the five months since President Trump first announced sweeping tariffs, Amazon quietly raised prices on low-cost products..., a Wall Street Journal analysis of nearly 2,500 items found." wsj.com/business/retai…
It's fashionable to blame generative AI for high recent grad unemployment — but the evidence doesn’t hold up. Check out @RadWill_'s analysis for @employamerica!
A lot of people are blaming AI for grads’ poor outcomes, but I find the evidence for this claim is surprisingly thin. Excited to release a new analysis w/ @employamerica on the labor market performance of recent college grads. 🧵
Don’t worry, we will. It may be, though, an inflation tax!
Guys at some point we are going to have to tax SOMETHING I’m just saying
New from our guest writer @RadWill_ on the rise on recent graduate unemployment. Is it AI? Not so fast!
Guys at some point we are going to have to tax SOMETHING I’m just saying
A lot of people are blaming AI for grads’ poor outcomes, but I find the evidence for this claim is surprisingly thin. Excited to release a new analysis w/ @employamerica on the labor market performance of recent college grads. 🧵
60% of the American companies on Fortune's list of top AI innovators have an immigrant founder. The world’s top talent overwhelmingly wants to come to US. This is a incredible advantage. American leadership in AI depends on allowing, even encouraging, high-skilled immigration.
Moreover, when you break down which occupations have seen the greatest rise in unemployment among young men w/ college degrees, it's 1) a broad story across occupations, but 2) with the greatest rises in *manual* jobs (production, repair, construction). Doesn't seem AI-driven.
But, plot twist: The much-discussed contraction in entry-level tech hiring appears to have *reversed* in recent months. In fact, relative to the pre-generative AI era, recent grads have secured coding jobs at the same rate as they’ve found any job, if not slightly higher.
This week, Donald Trump's fight with Jerome Powell continued, with a White House official first telling Bloomberg News that the president was preparing to fire the Federal Reserve chairman, and then Trump quickly taking the threat back. Executive director of The Budget Lab at…
This week, Donald Trump's fight with Jerome Powell continued, with a White House official first telling Bloomberg News that the president was preparing to fire the Federal Reserve chairman, and then Trump quickly taking the threat back. Executive director of The Budget Lab at…
“Lowering interest rates so there’s less debt and more ability to do things like tax cuts is an extremely dangerous and scary goal for a central bank to have. Every central bank that has embarked on that path, it’s ended very badly," @jasonfurman, NYT: nyti.ms/4lBOitd
This week, Donald Trump's fight with Jerome Powell continued, with a White House official first telling Bloomberg News that the president was preparing to fire the Federal Reserve chairman, and then Trump quickly taking the threat back. Executive director of The Budget Lab at…
But, plot twist: The much-discussed contraction in entry-level tech hiring appears to have *reversed* in recent months. In fact, relative to the pre-generative AI era, recent grads have secured coding jobs at the same rate as they’ve found any job, if not slightly higher.
New episode! Powell v Trump, Travel v Staycation, witches v natural science. Featuring @amandamull @marthagimbel @svaneksmith SUBSCRIBE!! bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
…any chance anyone has this note and can send it to me….
Early days ...
BLS's import price indices explicitly do not include tariffs. So this chart is actually making the exact opposite point: foreign producers have likely eaten very little if any of the cost of US tariffs in the form of lower prices. 1/2
This tweet has exactly one like and frankly that’s correct
With my last breath I will still be trying to get people to understand that PPI reflects what producers sell their stuff for