Michael Lowry

It's been death by a million papercuts to U.S. weather forecasts by the Trump administration, but Friday's detailed 2026 budget feels like a deathblow. In today's @nytimes I ask: How far can we degrade our hurricane forecasting before people end up dead? nytimes.com/2025/05/31/opi…

The Atlantic isn't looking nearly as unfriendly to would-be storms as it was just a few weeks ago. Today, a deep dive into what's driving the big changes and what it could mean for August. If you like inside baseball, you'll like today's newsletter. ⬇️ michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/changes-afoo…

Last hurricane season, the first Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) area tagged became Cat 5 Hurricane Beryl. Definitely not a repeat this year, but growing rumblings across the deep tropics this week. More in today's newsletter ⬇️ michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/first-area-o…

Despite all the flooding from abundant tropical moisture to start the hurricane season, tropical systems have so far struggled to organize or hold together. The overall season-to-date ACE is the lowest we've seen since the early season shutout of 2009. ⬇️ michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/disturbance-…

Heading into late July and August, environmental conditions generally look to become more supportive toward tropical systems in the Atlantic, with several passing pulses of convection. This coincides with the climatological rise in tropical waves rolling off of Africa.

Development odds may be dwindling, but the heavy rain and flood threat remain today and tomorrow across southern Louisiana. Also, don't look now, but the tropical Atlantic is heating up 📈 More in today's newsletter ⬇️ michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/development-…

Incredible shrinking cone! Great illustration showing how the Cone of Uncertainty has shrunk dramatically over time. Stark difference: Compare Kartina in 2005 to Helene in 2024. Hurricane forecasting has a come a long way due to the expertise of NOAA scientists and it's…

Glad to join @PublicHealthPod this week for a wide ranging conversation about the Texas floods, what went wrong, and how the proposed @NOAA cuts would decimate our ability to forecast floods and hurricanes of the future. Listen 🎧 here --> podcast.publichealth.jhu.edu/919-the-texas-…

From the National Tsunami Warning Center: 🔴 A TSUNAMI WARNING is posted for portions of Alaska following a M7.2 earthquake 50 miles S of Sand Point, Alaska, at 12:38pm AKDT July 16. A Tsunami Alert is for this event is posted at tsunami.gov

Notable quake, preliminary info: M 7.2 - 87 km S of Sand Point, Alaska earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ev…

Something I noticed in the hours of Congressional budget meetings on NOAA/NWS is the intese focus on fully restaffing NWS but without recognition of the experience and institutional knowledge lost to DOGE cuts. There's no easy fix for losing so many mid- late career forecasters.

👏🏼Congressional members from both sides of the aisle repudiated deep cuts to NOAA proposed by the Trump regime and reiterated their support for a fully staffed National Weather Service during important appropriations markups this week (via @MichaelRLowry) substack.com/home/post/p-16…

Some encouraging news over the past week and especially today as bipartisan Congressional committees widely reject proposed cuts to @NOAA that would decimate hurricane forecasting. The very latest from me ⬇️ michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/congressiona…