Kantro
@MichaelKantro
Chief Investment Strategist @Piper_Sandler. Ranked Wall Street's #1 Portfolio Strategist (II, '24). #HOPE. CFA. Girl dad. https://tinyurl.com/WNFMPodcast
Humbled that institutional investors ranked me and my team #1 in Portfolio Strategy in 2024. Hard work and a great team is a recipe for success. 🙏🙏🙏 #macro #hope bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
US rates (10yr) and the USD (DXY) are no longer disconnected. Yes, there was a temporary breakdown in April/May. Of late, the daily correlation is back to the strongest levels over the past few years. Expect rates, the USD, and the Fed to continue following the flow of inflation…
In recent years, the value of the dollar was driven by rate differentials, with foreign investors drawn to the US’s stronger growth and higher risk-free income. That relationship has broken down since April. Chart from Apollo’s Torsten Slok: apolloacademy.com/wp-content/upl…
In this episode, long-time colleagues Michael and Emily delve into the current state of the markets as they hit record highs. They discuss the impressive rebounds seen in meme stocks and high beta ETFs, along with the broader market's resilience. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wha…
Everybody is a genius [investor] when P/Es are going up. This is the part of the market cycle where you can throw darts and make money. Trees don’t grow to the sky and valuations eventually stop expanding when macro risks arise. Currently, the markets reflect very little to no…
![MichaelKantro's tweet image. Everybody is a genius [investor] when P/Es are going up. This is the part of the market cycle where you can throw darts and make money. Trees don’t grow to the sky and valuations eventually stop expanding when macro risks arise. Currently, the markets reflect very little to no…](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwyEbhpXAAE6UNg.jpg)
IMHO, one shouldn’t compare a small sample of EPS beats (only 25% of companies have reported) to the full results of past earnings seasons. This is 🍎 to 🍊. Fun fact, EPS beats tend to be higher earlier in earnings season, and then drift lower rather consistently. Other analysts…
Now an 87% EPS beat rate? Good heavens. MarketDesk
In government data we trust.
This could literally pass as a scene straight from The Office
Combination of structural (lack of smaller IPOs, PE, last recession was '07) and cyclical headwinds (rates, prices, labor costs). Earnings down 3 years in a row NOT in a recession. Smells like a bifurcated market. Best to be a small cap stock picker given so much fundamental…
The last time the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high was 1 trading day ago ... the last time the Russell 2000 closed at an all-time high was 925 trading days ago. Longest streak on record where the Russell 2000 has not joined the S&P 500 in seeing a record high.
Love a good Old School reference. Bring your green hat!
BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky: "Party Like it's 1999. As we discussed last week, the Nasdaq 100 has now gone 60 trading days without closing below its 20 DMA, the second-longest streak in its history (back to 1985). The longest was ended in early 1999."
In this episode, we discuss with Danny Kirsch (Head of Options Trading @Piper_Sandler) the parallels between current market complacency and pre-Liberation Day conditions. Danny explores extreme call buying, SPACs resurgence, and market liquidity. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wha…
I’ve been writing about narrative volatility for a while. The half life of narratives are getting shorter! Cool way that GS illustrates it for us data geeks. I just use the 10yr for simplicity. Remember ~2.5 weeks ago (chart below) when the 10yr fell to 4.22 after ADP when rate…
Goldilocks fleeting. Nice chart from GS
In this episode, Emily Needell, Deputy Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, joins us to explore the concept of "quality" in stocks. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wha…
When you are trying to figure out what’s priced in, the “market” is the last place to look. All the information is under the surface, one good example from @WarrenPies.
S&P 500 Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down >1% today). Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a 52 week high as the index made new highs. Bulls need rally to broaden. Fwiw, we neutralized our equity overweight last week.
I think we’re gonna need a bigger boat NJ.
Live on the Jersey Turnpike