Warren Pies
@WarrenPies
Founder @3F_Research | PM $FCTE - http://fullcycletrend.com | PM $RAA | Formerly with Ned Davis Research | Recovering Attorney (step 4) - Not investment advice
Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut. Would put the market at 5,200 by May... First time speaking w/ the great @ScottWapnerCNBC was a blast!
"Our first [rate] cut [forecast] is for May," says @3f_research's @warrenpies
4 Quadrants of Hell in L/S: - High Short Interest names rip - Low Quality >> High Quality - Short Losers RIP - Negative Revisions (++) vs Positive Revisions (--)
1/ Hated rallies persist until they're loved. This rally might be one of the most hated rallies in recent memory, second perhaps only to the 2023 rally following the Fed's aggressive hiking cycle and banking crisis.
Big automatic bids drying up too... vol-target went from -2 S/D to +1 S/D exposure...CTAs loading up...corporates blacked out. These have been big tailwinds for the rally
Not a great close from the equal-weight S&P today...
S&P 500 Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down >1% today). Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a 52 week high as the index made new highs. Bulls need rally to broaden. Fwiw, we neutralized our equity overweight last week.
Trump about to catch the car
If these guys actually push JP out it will be a classic case of the dog that caught the car. Careful what you wish for…
If you’ve had a good run since spring, time to collar longs or raise cash, keep some dry powder. Nothing crazy, give yourself some space to add on a 5-7% pull back.
S&P 500 Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down >1% today). Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a 52 week high as the index made new highs. Bulls need rally to broaden. Fwiw, we neutralized our equity overweight last week.
I agree. “Anomalous” is indeed the word.
For those wondering, this type of divergence is quite anomalous (histogram of breadth at new ATHs below). -Seasonality turning, -Sentiment peaking, -Automatic flows (corporates+vol-control+ctas) waning, -Tariff complacency Probably a good time to take down risk.
When you are trying to figure out what’s priced in, the “market” is the last place to look. All the information is under the surface, one good example from @WarrenPies.
S&P 500 Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down >1% today). Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a 52 week high as the index made new highs. Bulls need rally to broaden. Fwiw, we neutralized our equity overweight last week.
JUNE CPI Core CPI +.23% MOM Mostly in line with expectations to slightly cooler. The big story is shelter inflation hitting a multi-year low on a MOM basis... There is more rent disinflation coming (see ZORI collapse below).
Appreciate that Alexander
@WarrenPies gave a nice macro summary below, explaining the major shift in the market’s psychological framework — from a “debt deflation” mindset (2008–2020) to a “currency debasement” mindset (post-COVID). During the 2008 to COVID period, the economy was stuck in a balance…
@WarrenPies gave a nice macro summary below, explaining the major shift in the market’s psychological framework — from a “debt deflation” mindset (2008–2020) to a “currency debasement” mindset (post-COVID). During the 2008 to COVID period, the economy was stuck in a balance…
Nice podcast ep with @WarrenPies @maxwiethe. Warren is always worth a listen because of his thoughtfulness and independence. open.spotify.com/episode/3SbKY5…
If these guys actually push JP out it will be a classic case of the dog that caught the car. Careful what you wish for…
🚨 JUST IN: Trump Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte says, "The patriotic thing for Jerome Powell to do is to resign." He's right. It's time. It's costing us hundreds of billions what this man is doing.
Client FYI: The 3Fourteen H2 Outlook call is this morning. @WarrenPies and @fernavid will discuss the research themes, positioning as we enter Q3. Joined by @gary_sarkissian