Isar
@Isar_b
Org psych - focused on making work better I also write a newsletter & shitpost about politics/econ All thought are my own http://tinyurl.com/7wjpvhv9
Reading the Apollo risks for 2025 paper and increasingly thing we'll get no recession, higher inflation and a stock market correction Probably worth ignoring me because I was wrong in last year's prediction of a recession 🤣
This is v misleading because it implies government budgets are like household budgets 2 reasons they differ: 1. Gov spending can boost GDP - capital can give a positive return 2. Debt can be easily rolled, so deficits equal to nominal growth lead to flat debt to GDP over time
The UK is on the verge of bankruptcy - national debt has hit £2.7 trillion, almost 100% of GDP. That means the country owes as much as it earns. That kind of debt fuels inflation, weakens your savings & makes you poorer. And there’s only one thing the government will do next:…
This is going to be an especially good take if we go into recession. Over-optimising behaviour is a classic lifestyle creep / late cycle consumption behaviour imo
Got rid of my Apple Watch. Got rid of my Whop. Got rid of my Oura ring. Muted Bryan Johnson No more sleep scores. No more recovery scores. Optimizing every part of my life caused more stress than it solved Ironically I've never slept better in my entire life I think we are…
It's interesting that Sam chooses to write without AI help. I find the process of writing greatly clarifies my thinking in a way that talking doesn't (S/O to @paulg) and using LLMs feels like talking AI -> ideation Writing in a room alone -> hard thinking
wrote a new post, the gentle singularity. realized it may be the last one like this i write with no AI help at all. (proud to have written "From a relativistic perspective, the singularity happens bit by bit, and the merge happens slowly" the old-fashioned way)
This is a bad decision and all the £35k single parent / £70k working household tweets are only going to get louder if winter is particularly cold
BREAKING Govt confirms U-turn on cuts to winter fuel payment Every pensioner earning less than £35,000 in taxable income *will* receive the payment this winter Decision will cost £1.25bn - a black hole to be filled in at the Budget
I used to have an economics teacher who gave us 0 if we said % change instead of percentage points
U.S.-CHINA TARIFF REDUCTIONS TO EXCEED 100%
Ai-induced/enabled schizophrenia will be a really material (if niche) patient population in the next 3-5 years
this is wild lol
One great thing about tariffs: They can be modified or removed as quickly as they were introduced
One great thing about tariffs: They can be modified or removed as quickly as they were introduced
This is spot on - if you want a good understanding of mercantilism there's a great chapter on it in one of my fav economics books: new ideas from dead economists
the only reason you would place country specific tariffs proportional to bilateral trade deficits if you were a mercantilist with a pre adam smith understanding of economics. it was never more complicated than that. it's not worth tying to your destiny to this
Absolutely symptomatic of a short bounce after which retail gets rekt
Retail traders have bought a net $8 BILLION of Tesla stock, $TSLA, in 2 weeks. There has never been a 2-week inflow even HALF as large. Retail is calling a bottom in Tesla.
This is legitimately so stupid
DoorDash, $DASH, and Klarna have signed a deal where customers can choose to pay for food deliveries in interest-free installments
Nice validation that my @perplexity_ai pro license is the best bang for buck for any of my AI subscriptions
“Collectively, the AI search engines provided incorrect answers to more than 60% of queries.” ~ @CJR 🔗 cjr.org/tow_center/we-…
The quality of convo I just had with gpt 4.5 felt really impressive. I'd describe it as fluid and thoughtful (conscious that it's not "reasoning" but answers were compelling) Context: I'm used to using other openAI models and Claude, have spent less time with Grok
Quite a lot of macro / politics driven vol ATM - tricky period where risk mgmt and options hedging is v non-trivial. I've shifted more of my own strategies to defined risk than normal
BREAKING: The US and Ukraine are planing to sign the minerals deal as soon as today, sources say. President Trump reportedly told his advisors he wants to announce the deal during his speech to Congress tonight.