Alex Joiner 🇦🇺
@IFM_Economist
Chief Economist at IFM Investors. Aussie macro-focus. Views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of my employer. RTs not necessarily endorsements
Young adults in the English-speaking World are very unhappy. The young adult mental wellbeing crisis is much more pronounced in the English-speaking world than in Western Europe.
Notable given the debate in Australia. People will change their behaviour as policy changes.
Who could have possibly seen this coming, apart from everyone? Womp womp.
This is important for long term investors who are considering or already have tilted away from the US. Yet another reason for US economic dynamism.
Investment in research and development has been woeful since the GFC. Between the housing ponzi (that allocates capital away from productive investment), high immigration (that suppresses wage growth), low corporate competition (that ensures market share), and high tax and…
Seems like there even more of this today. Has this been a concerted effort to coincide with the new parliament. I am not claiming I know what resonates with young people but if it is some of the examples I have seen then we are in real trouble.
I am not picking out anything specific (there’s plenty out there) but who exactly is advising politicians on their social media posts and who exactly are they targeting with this content? I thought these were meant to be the “adults in the room”.
The problems we face with productivity have never been due to a shortage of ideas, they stem from a shortage of willingness, or indeed courage, to implement them. afr.com/policy/economy…
I am not picking out anything specific (there’s plenty out there) but who exactly is advising politicians on their social media posts and who exactly are they targeting with this content? I thought these were meant to be the “adults in the room”.
An August cut hinges on Q2 CPI. Data dependency is not a plan but market pricing 12-18 month out still seems to imply the Bank has one afr.com/policy/economy…
Investors not shunning US markets just yet.
After foreign investors pulled money out of the US in April (after "Liberation Day" chaos), long-term portfolio inflows recorded their strongest showing EVER in May. There never was a threat to US reserve currency status and the Dollar is on a rising - NOT falling - trajectory...
"S&P 500 earnings sentiment has been very strong over the past month." Goldman Sachs via @MikeZaccardi
To me the issue is that people 16 years and younger are more than likely still dependents, they live at home with parents, have not had a full time job, have likely never had to pay bills, have no one depending on them, have not completed their education and have relatively…
How did it come to this? Just as the first terms of trade boom brought an “age of entitlement” so has the second. So many lamented the recycling of the first terms of trade boom back to households but it seems history has at least in part repeated. afr.com/policy/economy…
The surest way to job security is to be employed in the non-market sectors of the economy.
Can simplify this further to show jobs that private sector jobs in market industries created since 2022 have been pretty stable with the growth being in the public sector or private sector in government-aligned industries. The risk being that growth in the latter has stopped.
Can simplify this further to show jobs that private sector jobs in market industries created since 2022 have been pretty stable with the growth being in the public sector or private sector in government-aligned industries. The risk being that growth in the latter has stopped.
This is a chart of what the RBA is talking about. Since 2022 most of the jobs created have been either directly in the public sector or in the private sector in industries that are government aligned (for example private sector jobs in healthcare). Only 18% of jobs have been…
This is a chart of what the RBA is talking about. Since 2022 most of the jobs created have been either directly in the public sector or in the private sector in industries that are government aligned (for example private sector jobs in healthcare). Only 18% of jobs have been…
Interesting from the RBA minutes is that the Bank expects a hand-off from government-aligned jobs to market sector jobs growth, if it doesn't occur the unemployment rate risks rising. That is arguably what we have seen in recent months.
Interesting from the RBA minutes is that the Bank expects a hand-off from government-aligned jobs to market sector jobs growth, if it doesn't occur the unemployment rate risks rising. That is arguably what we have seen in recent months.
