Gregory Brew
@gbrew24
Senior Analyst, Iran and Energy @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.
New pinned tweet, as the links broke for the old one: "Petroleum and Progress in #Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War." cambridge.org/us/academic/su… "The Struggle for #Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951-1954." uncpress.org/book/978146967…
"Secondary tariffs are penalties targeting countries or companies that continue doing business with a sanctioned nation." China would be affected, but so would India. kyivindependent.com/us-urges-europ…
Nice thread on why Iran's argument (which likely has Russian support) doesn't stand up to scrutiny. If anything, it further illustrates just how far the JCPOA has disintegrated--and why the US decision to exit unilaterally was so costly.
The JCPOA has a dispute resolution mechanism and allows a party to ‘cease performing its commitments’ if it ‘deems the issue to constitute significant non-performance’ and it’s not resolved. Nowhere does it say the counterparty automatically ‘relinquishes’ its ‘participation’. 2/
Barrack: "Strong nation states are a threat — especially Arab states are viewed as a threat to Israel." Notable candor. english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-ea…
Support for Iran's position on snapback, rejecting the E3's right to trigger the sanctions.
Indeed, the #E3 has no legal or moral right to launch the so-called #SnapBack mechanism to reimpose previous anti-Iranian sanctions.
"At this stage, we have no intention of speaking with America." france24.com/en/live-news/2…
Araghchi lays out Iran's case for handling snapback: arguing the E3 have exited the JCPOA via their ostensible support for Israel and the US, and have therefore lost the ability to trigger snapback. Not exactly an air-tight argument. But it doesn't need to be.
In a letter addressed to UNSG @Antonioguterres, the President of the Security Council, EU High Rep Kaja and members of the UN Security Council, I have outlined why the E3 lacks any legal, political, and moral standing to invoke the mechanisms of the JCPOA and UN Resolution 2231…
"However, Trump has so far refrained from public criticism and it's unclear if he shares his advisers' frustrations. It is not totally clear whether he shares his advisers' recent concerns about Israel's actions in Syria."
Honeymoon might be over--at the very least, little patience in the WH with Netanyahu's Syria policy.
It's been a month and Gaza has completely overtaken Iran in the US and Israel, in terms of interest and urgency. If Netanyahu and Trump want any lasting political gains from their victory (imagined or otherwise) over Tehran, they need a ceasefire and they need it now.
Apart from Napoleon's failed siege of Acre, there was very little conflict over this territory between the 13th and 20th centuries.
This is a good response but I also think that people clearly do pay disproportionate attention to events in Israel/Palestine for the same reason there were hundreds of years of Crusades fought there which is also the same reason the conflict is so intractable.
the president of the United States appears to be recommending that Iran builds a secret, undeclared nuclear enrichment program.
The first half is pretty straightforward--"obliteration," the bombing was effective, he doesn't believe his own intel assessment. The second half is...intriguing.