Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Mother, wife, daughter, EM Asia economist; Cheer-leader of life/markets; Vietnamese, Californian, living in HK
Why Vietnam Had to Make a Deal: This @bbgoriginals documentary interview is filmed at @natixis Hong Kong office .Thank you Lucia Wei He for the great producing of it. bloomberg.com/news/videos/20… Vietnam is the most trade exposed country in Asia – exports are 84% of GDP and US…
“We live in a new normal where 10% is the new zero and so 15% and 20% doesn’t seem so bad if everyone else got it,” said Trinh Nguyen, senior economist for emerging Asia at @natixis . At a 15%-20% tariff level, it’s still profitable for US companies to import from abroad rather…
Trump trade deals so far: #1 The UK, 10% reciprocal with sectoral reprieve, esp auto at 10% with quotas #2 Vietnam, 20% (vs 46% threat) tariff w/ 40% punishment for transhipment #3 Indonesia, 19% vs 32% threatened #4 The Philippines, 19% vs 20% threatened but was actually 17%…
Trump trade deals so far: #1 The UK, 10% reciprocal with sectoral reprieve, esp auto at 10% with quotas #2 Vietnam, 20% (vs 46% threat) tariff w/ 40% punishment for transhipment #3 Indonesia, 19% vs 32% threatened #4 The Philippines, 19% vs 20% threatened but was actually 17%…
Sectoral tariffs are excluded from reciprocal tariffs. So auto tariff of 25% is high so for countries with high sectoral exposure, you want to negotiate your sectoral and your reciprocal lower. That is what Japan got. It got auto lowered to 15% as well as reciprocal (everyone…
Honda/Toyota ripping on 30% effective tariff is mind bending
I'm reading about India US trade negotiations and some people get it and some don't. This is not about negotiatiing trade deals but trying to lower your tariff rate. Who cares if Trump tweets some headlines while the details differ? For him, he just needs wins for his…
Vietnam will sign. Why? Because, well, there is no other choice. Others have signed. Vietnam can't get a better deal than this. 10% is the new zero so 20% is not bad.
Ok, I finally got my hands on the draft US-Vietnam tariff agreement. Whoever wrote it must think Vietnam is a vending machine: insert pressure, get a deal. No way this gets signed. This is a real test of Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy”. Got my money on the Vietnamese diplomats!
If you are interested in knowing more about what's happening in Southeast Asia, then listen to @dririshsea podcasts - she has a lot of depth in her episodes that traditional media lacks as she is a well-known expert/professor/academic in the region. bit.ly/44Ba0pE