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@stonXBT
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Our Saylor, who art in MSTR, hallowed be thy stacks; thy Bitcoin come; thy HODL be done; on Wall Street as it is on the blockchain. Give us this day our daily sats, and forgive us our FOMO, as we forgive those who paper-hand against us. And lead us not into fiat, but deliver us…
agree with this next weeks are key. 2 paths imo: if we start grinding higher in aug, we likely continue the bullrun and see relevraging into YE as of Sep opex. alternatively, we likely see a slow drip lower into Sep opex and then some momentum back to current levels into YE.
Last few days of July will set the stage for markets for the rest of the year imo. FOMC meeting where dovish dissents are looking very likely QRA meeting where we will get a look into how willing Bessent is going to be to try to weaponize treasury issuance for the first time…
Summat like this... Reset the positioning in this range and run it back?
Um Annualized Return: ~3.98% (from the long SPY short Mag7 2.2% return over 6 months and 20 days, annualized with compounding). 1-Year Risk-Free Rate (Jan 2025): ~4.3%.
Um Annualized Return: ~3.98% (from the long SPY short Mag7 2.2% return over 6 months and 20 days, annualized with compounding). 1-Year Risk-Free Rate (Jan 2025): ~4.3%.
Be careful to be tempted into a time spread. Vol in 25JUL25 looks expensive so you might think it's a good idea to sell that and hedge by buying an August expiry. This is a complicated trade. As you approach expiry, δ goes binary. Price moving will change the delta of the…
7) ETH Dealers, according to the data, are short ITM Calls to initiators, and so are short Gamma on the downside (high delta ITM Call predominantly Jul25), and flat-long ATM+upside. There is no Gamma squeeze going on at this level of spot of higher, this is spot driven demand.
Trader Mindset: • think in probabilities, not isolated events • focus on the process, not results • stick to the system, don't deviate from it
Price is the ad. Time is the judge. Volume is the vote. 1. Price is an advertising mechanism. price = invitation, not an agreement. with this framework in mind, price goes up to advertise to sellers and goes down to advertise to buyers - an exploration process to confirm…
Everyone who has proclaimed they hate stops has taken massive losses or at the very least, spent months with clenched cheeks, praying to whatever god they worship for a do-over. There's a lesson in that.
Looking at a chart like this, it's tempting to jump to a narrative: "Put vols spike as traders believe..." Think simply first. Price went up above 120K: • OTM calls went closer to ATM • OTM puts went further OTM Recall that IV exhibits a volatility smile. IV is lowest at…
Junior options trader question. Focus on $BTC going over 120K: • Call marks were flat • Put marks popped Can you explain why?