Rory Green
@rorygreen5
Emerging Markets - Head of Asia Research - Chief China Economist @TS_Lombard
Every 12 months or so, there is a rumour that Xi Jinping is under serious political pressure.... @rorygreen5 We think this time is slightly different. Our view hinges on policy changes and two unique datasets, one of which is proprietary.
You’ve heard my spiel on this for years but now you can see it here in pink in my personal version of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy. on.ft.com/4dFW4io
Said the "liberation day" move in China steel was over done Smashed through that level now
CNY steel rebar down 8% after "liberation day" *Property stimulus (higher tariffs = bigger stimulus) *China steel industry consolidation *Home sales bottoming (just about!) Potential cyclical trade @steelmarketnews any thoughts? Is the weakness in new starts still too much?
US-China political risk is reducing at a rapid pace *Tech restrictions lifted (see Nvidia) *Rare earth supplies flowing again (magnet exports up 157% m/m) *Trump-Xi meeting coming up Falling risk premium is positive for China equities as we said in June @TS_Lombard
This is why you need to pay attention to Chinese companies even if you think they are uNiNvEsTaBLe. Tiktok wasn’t the first of globally competitive exports and it won’t be the last. This is just beginning.
The world is a big place. US investors have been asleep at the wheel. Pull up any China internet report for Tencent, Baidu, Weibo, or iQiyi for the last 3-4 years and you can read about short-form video competition. Bytedance is a ruthless competitor.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing prices paid shot up to +51 in June
great chat with @Louis_Ashworth @FTAlphaville what are the big trends and how do we do things differently? ft.com/content/36669e…
‼️WEBINAR ALERT ‼️3 PM GMT Tomorrow. No, we will not only be talking about the Strait of Hormuz....Register here: globaldata.zoom.us/webinar/regist… cc @TS_Lombard