Daniel von Ahlen
@Daniel_VonAhlen
Global Macro
Young Hyman Minsky looks like the James Dean of Financial Capitalism
The slump in services spending in the US has likely facilitated the decline in US core services ex housing inflation of late.
"Despite US equities reaching new highs, there is little evidence of irrational exuberance." @andrea_cicione @Daniel_VonAhlen @TS_Lombard
"Real Estate will continue to underperform ... GDP growth is slowing, home prices are falling, observed rent-price growth is below the prepandemic pace, and vacancy rates and homes available for sale have been steadily rising." @Daniel_VonAhlen @andrea_cicione @TS_Lombard
US tariff collection running at 1.2% of GDP annualized in June
Core of the US economy tracking relatively soft in Q2
"Consensus growth forecasts for the [EM] bloc seemed to have bottomed out." @Daniel_VonAhlen @andrea_cicione @TS_Lombard
US soft data improving, while hard data surprises continue to slide
Acceleration in Australian credit growth calls into question "restrictive" policy
Only Japan's and China's equity valuations currently within the interquartile range
Markets pricing meaningful easing for the Fed relative to other G10 central banks
US Wages & Salaries continue too grow at a solid pace.
