Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Recovering Hedge Fund Addict / Macro, Markets and Venture / Chess Master / @MIT Engineering
Passed Pawn's Perspective 1. Today's inflation report wasn't as scary as some expected. However, if you look under the hood you can see the beginnings of tariff related inflation in some goods categories. I expect the impact of tariffs to broaden and grow in the coming months.…
The dollar sure doesn't trade like everyone is short. Maybe fast money is short but virtually everyone else is long, one way or another. This Fed independence issue is a big deal. So many headwinds I've lost count. Wondering if I covered my short for no reason.
Tonight’s meal in honor of Powell not getting fired yesterday
For my STIR trader friends, remember when the whites moved over 100 bps in one session? Just came across this screenshot in my camera roll. Epic.
Bond yields are on the rise again this month, metals are skyrocketing, crypto is mooning and stocks are near ATH Either financial markets expect the Fed to cut unnecessarily, or they shouldn't be cutting at all, or both Just baiting the truflation bros on a summer Friday tbh
Claims right on track once again, no evidence of significant layoffs. Emergency Fed cuts postponed.
4/ In absolute terms, we've been running below my benchmark (dotted blue line) for initial claims.
Everyone expects TACOs this time, so markets will be less likely to crash. But the crash produced the TACO in the first place, so can we really evaluate the TACO properly without taking the market to the woodshed? Sounds more like Schrodinger's TACO to me.
Tariffs are a tax on domestic consumption and corporate profits leading tariffs are a tax on foreign countries by a score of 1-0 at halftime
Don't let partisan comments and cherry picked charts confuse you about who is paying the tariff. If foreigners were paying the tariffs, import prices would be falling. Instead the opposite is happening.
Passed Pawn's Perspective 1. Probably the craziest thing I missed while I was away was the president suggesting we mainly fund with T-Bills until rates come down. Bessent then avoided contradicting his boss, but in the end, the auction sizes remained the same. 2. Nothing to see…
Até logo y hasta luego to the Iberian Peninsula. Catching up on macro and markets, will share my thoughts soon. Hope you guys didn’t do anything I wouldn’t have done while I was away.
I doubt anyone is missing me but I’ve been off the screens in the real world. I noticed I’ve been missing some geopolitical theater, not sad about that. Have a great week, will check in here and there.
Getting ready for yet another Fed meeting with no move, despite all of the demands for easing. The impending war in the Middle East and concomitant rise in oil prices has only complicated the outlook further. Tariff related inflation is likely to hit this summer, making the…
Stablecoins are not going to create large amt of demand for USTs, see below. They can onboard some USD cash which creates a small amt of demand, primarily for Bills though. Any USD already in the system won't be new demand for USTs.
Just because @SecScottBessent says it doesn't make it true. Stable coins are an excellent alternative to USD deposits, Tbills, and MMF with a huge caveat that they don't pay interest. For those who have no access to USD deposits, Tbills and MMF - basically EM local…