Megan Cassella

At age 22 when Barack Obama was president I took a job covering trade policy because it was my way in to a national news organization, and guys I did not expect that experience to remain so relevant today

Not the biggest Fed news today, but interesting from the latest Beige Book: "Contacts in a wide range of industries expected cost pressures to remain elevated in the coming months, increasing the likelihood that consumer prices will start to rise more rapidly by late summer."

❗️This dinner was just canceled, I’m told. Members were told it’s because of votes but there’s some skepticism that’s the real/only reason…

Q: Have you ruled out the idea of firing Jerome Powell? TRUMP: "I don't rule out anything. But I think it's highly unlikely. Unless he has to leave for fraud, I mean, it's possible there's fraud involved with the $2.5, $2.7B renovation."

A reminder: @vtg2 asked Powell in November whether he would leave his post if Pres. Trump asked him to. "No," he replied. Asked later by @amacker if he believed Trump had the power to fire or demote him, Powell replied: "Not permitted under the law."

New: President Trump is likely to move to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a White House official tells me. The situation remains fluid and the move is not imminent. He discussed it last night with House lawmakers, who expressed support (confirming CBS). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Pres. Trump was asked tonight whether he ever planned to release details of the Vietnam trade framework. “I don't think it matters how much I release of the deal,” he said. “We may open it. I mean I don't know, I can't tell you, I mean is it necessary? I don't think so.”

I'm a broken record on this, but formal paperwork is always key before tariff changes are finalized. And we are still waiting on further paperwork/confirmation for: —The framework deals with Indonesia & Vietnam —The 50% copper tariffs —The 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia

More Indonesia trade framework details: —0% tariffs on US exports; 19% tariffs on imports from Indonesia (down from 32% threatened last week) —Top imports that could see impact: palm oil, electronics, footwear, tires —Waiting on formal paperwork or confirmation from Indonesia

A week after announcing 50% tariffs on all imported copper, saying it poses a national security threat, the President today says that as part of the trade framework with Indonesia, the U.S. will be buying more of Indonesia's "very high quality copper."

But drilling down a bit, it sure likes there's evidence of tariffs showing through, especially in "household furnishings," a broad category that includes things like appliances and furniture.

When people ask me about various internet rumormongering, my first instinct is to ignore it in the same way the TV cameras don't show the streaker running on the field at Yankee Stadium. But for people who really do wonder about whether the Fed chair would do the opposite of…

~60% of everything the U.S. buys from abroad comes from four trading partners: the EU, Mexico, Canada & China. New tariff rates on their imports, starting Aug. 1: — EU: 30% — Mexico: 30%* — Canada: 35%* — China: 30% *USMCA goods may be exempt, but the decision is not final

In new letters, President Trump today says all imports from Mexico and the EU will face 30% tariffs beginning Aug. 1.

Trump's message for countries ahead of the Aug 1 tariff deadline: "Keep working hard. We've been taken advantage of for many years by countries, both friends and foe. Frankly, the friends have been worse than the foes.. So I'd say, just keep working. It's all going to work out."

Pres. Trump was asked twice this morning if he'll fire Fed Chair Powell. "No," he replied both times. "I think he's doing a terrible job," he added. "I think we should be three points lower."

Escalations in Trump's trade war just this week: — Steep new tariffs on Canada (largest buyer of US goods) & Brazil (which runs trade surplus with US) —50% copper tariff —Possible 200% pharmaceutical tariff —Possible doubling of the baseline tariff on *everything,* up to 20%