Michael McNair

Probably the best call I’ll ever make and the best report I’ll ever write: docs.google.com/document/d/18i… Thanks @Jesse_Livermore:

Dependency is power. Glad to see this administration understands that. As I wrote in April, “Beijing maintains leverage by keeping adversaries dependent, while Washington’s tech bans inadvertently force Chinese companies toward the very self-sufficiency we hoped to prevent.”

I believe this new US Japan investment fund is less about trade rebalancing and more about re-shoring critical industries for national security. But I agree that if it’s just another capital inflow, it will widen our trade deficit. We still don’t have enough information about…

Re-reading Geoffrey Moore’s late 90’s classic, The Gorilla Game. It’s still one of the best ways to think about investing during periods of discontinuous innovation. Who will be the gorilla in the AI value chain?

Chinchilla gets framed as a lesson about model size vs. token count, but the deeper insight is about marginal entropy. What matters isn’t just how many tokens a model sees, but how much new information those tokens contain. Chinchilla defines its scaling law in terms of token…

This is why they tariffed the penguins

In 2005, J. Powell wrote a book analyzing Canada’s 1961 Coyne Affair - the most explicit example of a G7 central banker forced from office after openly defying elected officials. The central banker noted: “The Governor was prepared to resist political pressure even at the cost of…