Dow

Summertime

Remember the Sahm rule and how the Fed was stupid for not cutting in July? Before you jump them for cutting tomorrow, it's worth keeping in mind that we in markets overreact in both directions, and the pendulum is usually ready to swing back the other way when talk of a Fed…

It's an enigma

BREAKING: Jeffrey Epstein shuts down the Congress from the grave.

I've been reduced to being bullish bitcoin, bullish gold, and playing golf as if it were exercise. Shoot me now.

We went from "The Fed was stupid for not cutting in July. I mean, the Sahm Rule has triggered. We need emergency cuts yesterday" to "Fed made a mistake by cutting 100bps. What were they even thinking?" Guess what comes next.

In the short term narratives about supply definitely can and do dominate. But when you zoom out and look at levels they tend to evaporate (like the succession of "reasons" QT wasn't killing stocks and boosting the long end. It always comes back to a combo of the policy rate and…

wHaT aBOuT ThE SaVErs?

Recession progression: Inverted yield curve Shrinking M2 Disinverting yield curve Sahm rule The only thing that ever changes is the reasoning

That yields went 100bps higher AFTER the Fed cut 50 is not a sign of a monetary policy error. It's a sign the market was wrong by pricing in a Sahm-rule recession in the run up to the Fed's Sept rate cut. It's literally all the market talked about last July-Sept.

Amazing to me how ppl have memory holed this. the market's hindsight is terrible at reproducing the full context in which policy decisions are taken.

A lot of ppl have misremembered why rates rose after the Fed cut 50 last year. It wasn't about fiscal. Wasn't because the market thought cutting was wrong (most of the market thought they were behind the curve and should have cut in July). It was because we went into that…

You just know Chamath pronounces it Eye-Ss-Dee-Ay

#timestamp

The grift that keeps on grifting

Judy Shelton on gold, tariffs and where the Fed went wrong centralbanking.com/7973352

TTW you've supported tighter money, deficit reduction, free trade and smaller government all your life but you're willing to sell it all out for a job at the Fed.

Weekend

It's not about rate cuts or staying on hold. It is about what an intellectually consistent and honest appointment signals to the market VS perennial hawks who have transformed into doves b/c they will do whatever the President wants.

Many criticize Waller and say he is just trying to get the job, but there is a huge distance from him - someone who has an intellectual consistent/defensible/sound position - and the sycophants (Hassett, Bowman, Warsh) who are extensions of DJT. The upshot is that the market…