Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
Psephologist, polling analyst/transparency advocate, electoral consultant, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Auth KB 8 Mortimer Mt Stuart
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/06/2025-t… 2025 Tasmanian Election Guide: Main Page #politas
I'll start a 2025-8 aggregate later this year, there is quite a volume of polling appearing already. The honeymoon bounce above Labor's ridiculously high election 2PP is not surprisingly dissipating but it will be interesting to see how long they remain way above L-NP on 2PP.
1/2 --> Some early primary vote polling (2028 Australian Federal Election). Note mainstream party declines. Note One Nation growth. [if you are wondering, I am just testing my new data scraping python code for the Wikipedia site.] #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
I'm rather doubting that a five and a half way battle for a final Hare-Clark seat has been the subject of an Instagram post before instagram.com/p/DMcKAGOomTU/ #politas
An interesting suggestion but if parties knew AI was being used in ballot adjudication they could object to more ballots just in case the AI agreed with them even though a human wouldn't. newsbeep.com/au/10330/
What supposed advantage was Jeremy Rockliff seeking to exploit at the 2024 election? What stability is provided when defecting crossbenchers can hold a government to ransom and the government cannot call an election so the people can sort out the mess? #politas
Four-year parlts would provide stability and should be part of the negotiations to form the next government, as @MegWebbTweets suggests. megwebb.com.au/media-release-… #politas
#politas media don't interview Donald Rothwell for 24 hours challenge. His line is especially unfortunate given history of Tas governors sometimes overemphasising stability in their decisions (albeit to a much lesser degree).
Omg and know this same expert in international ocean law is on ABC Drive with Kylie Baxter. Talking complete nonsense. Can ABC not find an expert in Tasmanian constitutional law? Have they lost @kevinbonham’s phone number? Or are they just determined to provide misinfo? #politas