Mark
@Mark_Graph
Interests: Data. Python. Economics. Social Policy. Politics. Australia. Caveats: Not financial advice. Opinions my own. Likes ≠ endorsement.
I'll start a 2025-8 aggregate later this year, there is quite a volume of polling appearing already. The honeymoon bounce above Labor's ridiculously high election 2PP is not surprisingly dissipating but it will be interesting to see how long they remain way above L-NP on 2PP.
1/2 --> Some early primary vote polling (2028 Australian Federal Election). Note mainstream party declines. Note One Nation growth. [if you are wondering, I am just testing my new data scraping python code for the Wikipedia site.] #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
Some of the data in today's detailed labour force report #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
Should YIMBYs broaden their agenda? I'm sceptical. Long 10-point agendas do not persuade anyone, cause dissension within the movement and are a waste of time. Instead, set priorities. Then focus on the central message; i.e. "Allow more housing"
People support housing density if they like cities. The YIMBY movement will go farther if it evolves into a broader “livable cities” coalition. @CSElmendorf and @ProfSchleich show the way ⬇️
There is someone out there with a total HECS debt of over $830k....
Apropos of little, As you know, *compulsory* preferential voting replaced FPTP federally in 1918. Informality went from 2.6% in 1917 to 3.5% in 1919 - not toooo bad at all, still low by today's standards. How did they manage to keep it low, considering the sudden change? Well...
You’d never know it from these stories but the average renter’s rent cost is lower today than 10 years ago (relative to income).
There is new evidence that rental price growth is easing, potentially putting downward pressure on inflation and interest rates. ab.co/3TRIsHR
'More than 50pc of voters now rely on government for their main income' afr.com/policy/economy…
A quick look at the early polls this election cycle. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon Caveats: (1) Polls at this point in the cycle are not going to tell us much about the next election. (2) I am doing a 90-day LOESS on 58 days of data.
Four charts of the 2025 Australian Federal Election outcome in historical context. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
People often keen to talk about lowering/removing the 50% CGT discount but never/rarely the 100% discount on owner occupier housing which is worth far more. Taxing full nominal gains would be a large disincentive to supply rentals in Australia. afr.com/politics/feder…
The latest jump in the unemployment rate has me wondering where the NAIRU (or u-star) lies. For the past two years, I have had the NAIRU around 4.5 per cent. Unfortunately, most current measures of inflation have been munted by government subsidies (even the trimmed mean). The…
JOHN STONE – THE FORMER HEAD OF TREASURY – HAS PASSED AWAY John was a complex character, but blessed with a truly stunning intellect. One small story if I may … Stone was well known among economists for having forecast the recession of the mid-1970s. In early March 1989 the…
"If you put a clown in charge of the Fed, the clown could do all sorts of bad things."