Dwarkesh Patel
@dwarkesh_sp
Host of @dwarkeshpodcast https://www.youtube.com/DwarkeshPatel https://spoti.fi/3MFtqBR https://apple.co/3ujLQkZ
New blog post where I explain why I disagree with this, and why I have slightly longer timelines to AGI than many of my guests. I think continual learning is a huge bottleneck to the usefulness of these models, and extended computer use may take years to sort out. L-nk below.
"Even if AI progress totally stalls, it's sufficiently easy to collect data on all these different white collar job tasks that we should expect to see them automated within the next 5 years."
Congress today held a hearing on whether to force states to sell pork from crated pigs. This is a wildly unpopular policy that Congress is likely about to enact via the Farm Bill. Today's hearing showed how Big Ag lobbyists get DC politicians to do their bidding. A 🧵...
This conversation between Adam Brown and @dwarkesh_sp is the most intellectually delightful podcast in the series (which is a high bar). Adam's casual brilliance, his joyful curiosity and the scope of his arguments on the side of life are exhilarating. dwarkeshpatel.com/p/adam-brown
The Dwarkesh episode with Adam Brown was brilliant all the way through, but the ending was my favourite part:
One thing I tried to push Stephen Kotkin on: Okay, you say that China saw decades of double-digit growth not thanks to the CCP, but because of the hard work and entrepreneurialism of the Chinese people. But India also has lots of hard working entrepreneurial people. Why does…
"we have this narrative that the Communist Party produced an economic miracle in China. I’m sorry, the Communist Party took advantage...A lot of those local officials just stole the land and stole the businesses from people who'd created a success." dwarkesh.com/p/stephen-kotk…
Thinking about this observation from @tylercowen again:
Every time someone proposes training a model for some domain (virtual cells/materials/whatever), the first sentence should be: input data: x, output data: y, loss function: z. Would make it a lot easier for dum dums like me to understand what exactly is being proposed.
Must listen. @dwarkesh_sp is the rare combination of being highly knowledgeable and explaining his knowledge in a way everyone can understand.
“If AI is technologically possible, it is inevitable.” - @dwarkesh_sp We’re mid-Cambrian Explosion: • 4× annual jump in frontier-model spend • Energy demand will hit nation-state scale by 2028 • Chips & compute racing toward $ 1Tn+ industries This is the Scaling Era—a new…
Looking for an energy expert to interview on my podcast. I want to get in the weeds on what will happen the wild AI worlds. As AI actually becomes capable of substituting for human labor, your country's GDP will be denominated by your AI population size, which is downstream of…
If you want to explore blogging about AI, this seems like a great way to give it a shot, get great mentorship, and hold yourself accountable.
Asterisk is launching an AI blogging fellowship! We're looking for people with unique perspectives on AI who want to take the first step to writing in public. We'll help you build a blog — and provide editorial feedback, mentorship from leading bloggers, a platform, & $1K
Insurance is an underrated way to unlock secure AI progress. Insurers are incentivized to truthfully quantify and track risks: if they overstate risks, they get outcompeted; if they understate risks, their payouts bankrupt them. 1/9