Erica York
@ericadyork
vp of federal tax policy @taxfoundation. adjunct instructor @sterlingclife. mom of two + one more on the way.
The White House claims tariffs work. Let’s look at each study they cite to see if they’re correct.
Whatever your opinion of the chief, it is too positive: 1. Tariffs don't raise prices 2. Okay they raise prices 3. The price increase are on purpose so they don't count toward inflation 4. The Fed is forbidden by law from considering the effects of tariffs
“Tariff inflation” is an oxymoron. Raising a price via an explicit policy choice is not inflation, and resulting relative price changes in the economy are not a cognizable subject of monetary policy. A Fed holding rates higher in response is politicizing its role.
Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the "Big Beautiful Bill” tax cuts taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tar… @ericadyork @alex_durante_
I guess I shouldn't be surprised that John can't think at the margin.
If $6, why not $7? If $7, why not $8? We could alleviate lots of suffering by opening our borders and impoverishing Americans with globally redistributive taxes. The alleged moral requirement of telescopic charity knows no principled bounds.
🚨🚨🚨
After a week of frenetically updating our tariff tracker we finally have new estimates of Trump’s latest reciprocal tariff regime. We find that before retaliation the current and threatened tariffs would reduce GDP by 0.8 percent and raise $2.5 trillion over the next decade.
After a week of frenetically updating our tariff tracker we finally have new estimates of Trump’s latest reciprocal tariff regime. We find that before retaliation the current and threatened tariffs would reduce GDP by 0.8 percent and raise $2.5 trillion over the next decade.
⚡️ Tracking the economic impact of the Trump tariffs: Per US household, the tariffs altogether would amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 in 2025 and nearly $1,700 in 2026.
It was a gigantic mistake for anti-tariff people to tie tariffs to inflation. For one, it’s debatable imo how tariffs will interact with measures of inflation. For two, the point is they make us poorer, no matter what, and that is enough.
I recommend not getting tied in knots over this. What matters is what tariffs do to real, after-tax income. They reduce it; we get poorer--regardless of how the Fed reacts.
“Tariff inflation” is an oxymoron. Raising a price via an explicit policy choice is not inflation, and resulting relative price changes in the economy are not a cognizable subject of monetary policy. A Fed holding rates higher in response is politicizing its role.
I understand it's fun to ~well actually~ people, but it is a distraction. Proponents of tariffs need to explain why they believe it's good that our real income goes down.
it’s cute that he cites me for “but press economists on this” when I’ve consistently warned to be careful when talking about inflation and tariffs.
Adding one more rule: please be precise if you bring up the inflation word.
Tremendously honored to have joined Jon on the Daily Show!
Economic commentator Kyla Scanlon (@kylascan) joins Jon Stewart to discuss her book, "In This Economy?"
A Deplete America First policy
HASSETT: 50% U.S. COPPER TARIFFS ARE AIMED AT PROMOTING U.S. PRODUCTION
Def should do this for grocery stores, steel mills, and rare earth mines.
Man, I defend the post office, but I just went into mail something at 1:52 and was told they wouldn’t do it because they’re closed. They close at two.
Tariffs on EU goods just announced: 30% across the board, probably higher in some sectors. Being nice, giving up the digital tax, did not achieve anything for Europe. Intelligent retaliation is of the essence, even if it leads to dangerous economic and geopolitical waters in…
Tariffs on EU goods just announced: 30% across the board, probably higher in some sectors. Being nice, giving up the digital tax, did not achieve anything for Europe. Intelligent retaliation is of the essence, even if it leads to dangerous economic and geopolitical waters in…
I’m somewhat fascinated by the idea that construction workers wander aimlessly across the country randomly building houses for free on empty lots only to have those houses somehow get conquered by voracious landlords.
Even if firms absorbed the price increases, this would still be bad! Lower profits and revenues means less investment, jobs, and innovation
This is a bit of a dopey argument. The tariff policy changes every other week, the reciprocal tariffs are not in effect, and the negative effects do not hinge on how they impact consumer prices specifically. And we just passed a large tax cut on top of everything.
The expert class that predicted an economic apocalypse due to Trump’s tariffs policies will soon have to explain why the average consumer isn’t experiencing higher prices of imports and why the stock market, NASDAQ, Gold and BTC are all:
maybe this will all be settled when I’m back from maternity leave?
Trump has now sent new tariff threats to 51 countries representing the vast majority of US trade, including close allies like the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, & South Korea This rate is now a significant escalation from the April 2nd tariffs & implies a new minimum tariff of ~20%