Ed Hodgson
@edhodgsoned
Associate Director, Polling and Analysis @moreincommon_
Across the board, an almost gravitational pull towards third parties at this election - as Tory seats went towards Lib Dem and Reform, and Labour seats went towards Green and Independent
Our refreshed newsletter is really worth a follow if you haven't already! My favourite stat in this week's edition identifies which group of the British public were most likely to get sun burn this week 👀🔥
This week's edition of our newsletter The Opinion Brief is out now, with a deep dive into a our new Sceptical Scroller segment, a look at summer habits and Votes at 16. 26724274.hs-sites-eu1.com/sceptical-scro…
Adding slushies to the list of things the public think should be banned for young people - alongside smartphones and energy drinks
Another one to add to the British public love a ban list, by a 3-1 margin people back banning the sale of slushies to children. Parents of young children are the most supportive.
Enjoyed speaking to @MaxFosterCNN for @cnni yesterday about the potential impact of lowering the voting age in the UK
Looking at the potential electoral implications of letting 16-17 year olds vote- one group that could really benefit is independent candidates. Places with the most people aged 16-17 also had the strongest performance of independent / WPB in the 2024 election
Interesting analysis from Jake - the Tories have a steeper age gradient of voters, so have more to lose from a younger electorate
Overlaying our most recent VI on to our MRP, using some *VERY* back-of-the-envelope maths and census age data, only 9 seats in England would change hands as a result of this change, assuming 16-17 year olds turned out & voted similarly to 18-24 year olds. moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insight…
Key point. The most consequential measure in this election reform package is automatic voter registration - not because more will vote but because constituency boundaries will shift as a result - crudely more low registration inner city seats/fewer leafy high registration ones
Hot take: Expanding the right to vote to 16/17 year olds will have little impact on election results - outside of hyper marginal seats. The government's proposals to introduce automated registration are less eye catching but could be far far more impactful electorally...
Votes at 16 was Labour's least popular manifesto pledge when @Ipsos_in_the_UK polled in GE2024 👇
How might 16 year olds have changed the last election result? Maybe not very much. Assuming they voted similarly and at similar rates to 18-24 year olds the differences to the final vote shares would have been at one decimal place level.
Some things to think about with 16-17 year olds voting. Firstly taking into account turnout and size, you’re looking at them making up about ~2% of the electorate. That’s not huge. But remember we are in an area of hyper fragmentation where small shares matter much more.
Today (Weds) at 11.30 our webinar on the new British Seven Segments. More on the new fault lines, the segments and what it means for politics/issues/institutions. Sign up here moreincommon.zoom.us/webinar/regist…
In 2020 @Moreincommon_ launched the British 7 Segments. After a pandemic, major global conflicts, political upheaval, cost of living crisis, changes in work/social/information habits it’s time to update them for 2025. Here’s an intro to our new tribes of Britain (Quiz link next)
Really pleased that 4,000 people have taken our segment quiz on our website so far. Safe to say that our audience isn't necessarily representative... many more are Progressive Activists and Established Liberals than the country as a whole, and far fewer are Rooted Patriots
In 2020 @Moreincommon_ launched the British 7 Segments. After a pandemic, major global conflicts, political upheaval, cost of living crisis, changes in work/social/information habits it’s time to update them for 2025. Here’s an intro to our new tribes of Britain (Quiz link next)
Great to talk to @Channel4News @ameliaajenne about our findings last night for their excellent feature on Shattered Britain. channel4.com/news/britain-i…
Super interesting thread from Jake! As people's living situations get more precarious, they see less of a need to protect our existing institutions and a greater desire to tear them down and start from scratch - on both left and right
"Institutional arson-ism" forms the basis of one of the biggest emerging fault lines in British politics, and more importantly it correlates with a lot of other political behaviour... 🧵
Great thread from Luke - if you did the quiz and were surprised by your result, suspect this might help explain why
🧵Here's a bit more on the British Seven Segments and how they come together and diverge. Despite a shared belief Britain needs fixing - a clear clear fault lines is between those segments who want to improve institutions and those say we need to let them all burn.