Jared Bernstein
@econJaredB
Thnx to Greg for giving me a chance to hold forth. We can, should, & do go into many weeds on these policies, but the big pic couldn't be clearer: after running on helping the working class, the Trump admin is attacking them, making them worse off and raising the costs they face.
"The cumulative effect of tariffs and the budget bill is to make 80% of households less well-off. As someone who’s been observing politics for decades, I’ve never seen anything like this." On the pod, Jared Bernstein is great on Trump screwing his voters: newrepublic.com/article/197396…
Dear Deity, I’m sorry I complained so much over the years about “do-nothing” Congresses but can you please stop punishing me for it? I get the point.
WATCH LIVE: President Trump signs the GENIUS Act into law, setting up a regulatory stablecoin framework
Some brief noodling on a ridiculous possibility: open.substack.com/pub/econjared/…
Trump and the markets this week: Trump: "Trade war forever!" Markets: "He's bluffing." [TACO rally] Trump: "Markets onboard w forever trade war!" New Canada tariff threat spooking markets today, so maybe this loop will break. But just sayin'...
Tis said: "if you really understand something, you can explain it to anyone." That came to mind listening to renowned tax economist Elena Patel (former CEA, now TPC) break down the tax policies in the big, bad budget bill on Let's Do Lunch yesterday: contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lunc…
Ray Dalio says: The GOP bill “reflects a political system that favors indulging voters over prudence.” Nope. The bill is deeply underwater with most voters. It indulges Trump & the R donor class while screwing the working class, many of whom know it. wsj.com/finance/invest…
The devolution of American fiscal policy in one annotated graph, told through the history of our publicly-held debt/GDP, including the impact of Trump and the R's budget bill.
Probably fair to assume that those making such arguments the loudest have zero ideas on how to ameliorate the affordability crisis.
just feels like every discussion is stupid. "seize the means of production," "eats rice with his hands," "he's muslim." no one cares!! we need a rigorous debate in this country on how to lower housing cost because we're all working 60 hours/ week to pay rent!
Wow, a really nice compliment from Trump to Powell! Complaining about how the Fed chair won't bend to his will, Trump said: “I’m nasty. I’m nice. NOTHING WORKS!" That last bit there is the sign of a truly independent central banker.
No question, these are confusing econ times. But I still think one can pull an intelligible signal from the dataflow, especially re inflation and the labor market. econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-th…
Who wins/who loses from tax changes in the budget is an important question. But a more important question is who wins/loses from the full tax agenda, including tariffs, a highly regressive tax. Here’s the answer from the Budget Lab. Answer: **everyone** except the wealthy.
I urge you to glance at this post by Hannah Katch and me because it captured, for us, a core conservative case against Mcaid and other anti-poverty programs: they must be cut because they've grown. With literally zero consideration of their impact. econjared.substack.com/p/the-conserva…
There are a lot a smart analyses and numbers generated re the big, bad budget bill. Here's a collection of some I find particularly compelling, along with a highly relevant observation about the false promise of trickledown from...*1516.* econjared.substack.com/p/there-are-a-…