David Smith
@dsmitheconomics
David Smith is economics editor of The Sunday Times. His website is http://economicsuk.com. His latest book is Something Will Turn Up.
Lloyds Bank boss Charlie Nunn has said Rachel Reeves should not impose new taxes on banks. Is he right?
Indeed he is.
Robert Plant is from West Brom and a Wolves fan!
We got used to a lot of economic nonsense from the Leave side (and sometimes over-exaggeration from the Remain side) during the UK Brexit debates. But Trump really does take economic illiteracy to a whole new level.
On the Japan so called deal (diktat?). Trump can win many fights, but one thing he cannot do is win fights against accounting identities. Trade deals, whatever they do, cannot, as claimed, simultaneously reduce the US current account deficit, and increase net capital flows to the…
A good summary by @dsmitheconomics of the current fiscal position. I’d not put much weight on data for June alone and Q2 2025 was in line with OBR forecasts. But the outlook is less rosy given higher gilt yields, the benefits u-turns and possibly lower trend productivity growth.
My Times piece: This was meant to be the year in which the budget deficit starts to fall, in line with official projections. If not, there’s a problem: Public borrowing may be more than just a headache for Rachel Reeves thetimes.com/article/23b2f0…
And don't forget ELO
Just to stir the Midlands cultural debate IMHO Noddy Holder & Slade have made a more lasting contribution to popular culture than Ozzy & Black Sabbath - and of course neither of them are Shakespeare.
My Times piece: This was meant to be the year in which the budget deficit starts to fall, in line with official projections. If not, there’s a problem: Public borrowing may be more than just a headache for Rachel Reeves thetimes.com/article/23b2f0…
At £16.4 billion, central government debt interest payable was the third highest in any month on record, behind that of June and December 2022, and £2.4 billion more than forecast by the OBR. 4/7
This month saw an £8.4 billion increase in central government debt interest payable compared with June last year, largely reflecting recent movements in the RPI. 3/7
Borrowing in June 2025 was the second-highest June borrowing on record behind that of June 2020, being higher than in any June in the last four years. 2/7
In June 2025, the public sector spent more than it received in taxes and other income, requiring it to borrow £20.7 billion. This was a £6.6 billion more than in June last year and £3.5 billion more than forecast by the OBR. 1/7 ow.ly/yPLb50Wt2PT
Spot on from @dsmitheconomics (as ever) … Mildly disappointing — but don’t think of calling it stagflation thetimes.com/article/78a05c…
Thanks Jonathan
Why language matters when assessing the UK economy- @dsmitheconomics takes a look at reality in his excellent column in The Sunday @thetimes thetimes.com/article/78a05c…
Why language matters when assessing the UK economy- @dsmitheconomics takes a look at reality in his excellent column in The Sunday @thetimes thetimes.com/article/78a05c…
Sane and sober analysis among all the hysterical, politically motivated catastrophising
My Sunday Times piece: It was silly to overreact to the latest small rise in inflation. Things could be better but are a long way from being terrible on either inflation or unemployment: Mildly disappointing — but don’t think of calling it stagflation thetimes.com/article/78a05c…
My Sunday Times piece: It was silly to overreact to the latest small rise in inflation. Things could be better but are a long way from being terrible on either inflation or unemployment: Mildly disappointing — but don’t think of calling it stagflation thetimes.com/article/78a05c…
Is the government right to encourage the public to own more shares by running an advertising campaign?
In March to May 2025, average weekly earnings were up 5.0% on the year both excluding including bonuses. At 5.5%, public sector pay growth continues to outstrip the private sector, at 4.9%. Read the article ➡ ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…
We’ve published the latest labour market figures. Commenting on today’s figures, ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said: (quote 1 of 2) Read the Labour market overview ➡ ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…
Donald Trump (not Joe Biden) appointed Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2017.
Reporter: Do you have plans or are you considering firing Powell? What is your justification? Trump: I was surprised he was appointed— surprised frankly that Biden put him in and extended him. We’re not planning on doing anything