Bert Hofman（郝福满）
@berthofmanecon
Adjunct professor @nuseai National University Singapore. Non-resident senior fellow MERICS, Asia Society Policy Institute. On substack and the blue place.
I consider this a tactical move to divert the political discussion (read: truth social posts) away from Powell. A systematic review that brings objective facts to discuss at the oversight committee in Congress would calm things down.
Good morning, Asia. While you were sleeping, this was our most-read story on.ft.com/4mcU2JP
I guess in the Trump world, "deal" is better than no deal, but the whole is still a mess (countries with "deals" in red).
The Committee to Save the Rest of the World
It is time to build a new form of freedom and independence for the 21st century. For this, partners like Europe and Japan must come closer together. Not only to build our own independence. But to strengthen each others’ ↓
of course not, the US is raising its tariffs above its WTO bound levels, and others are agreeing not to retaliate (and in some cases lowering some tariffs too). No doubt other trade partners will ask for the same tariff treatment granted to the US ... with a solid legal case
It is raining deals, but are these deals also Free Trade Agreements in a WTO sense? Likely not. In which case the low tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on partners should apply to all WTO members! Rules on FTAs are spelled out in GATT article XXIV. A fun read wto.org/english/tratop…
BESSENT ON FED'S POWELL: NOTHING TELLS ME HE SHOULD STEP DOWN RIGHT NOW
And everybody gets a pony.
BESSENT: BY Q1 2026 GOING TO SEE GDP GROWTH AT 3% OR MORE
Does anybody here knows of good trade finance data? Global and/or regional time series? Many thanks in advance for any reference/source.
I recalculated China's potential trade diversion to include all regions and control for double-counting. In Q2, China potentially found replacement markets for 82% of its lost exports to the United States on a product-by-product basis.
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
kontradiksi: putusan Tom Lembong vs aturan main Danantara yang tidak bisa diaudit BPK & KPK.
From 7am to midnight in Bath, UK, the names of 15,500 Palestinian children killed in Gaza were read aloud — by everyday people and public figures alike. A powerful stand against genocide. Humanity spoke. Conscience echoed. History will remember. #Gaza #CeasefireNOW
This may not be what CGTN intended to express.
Why are so many foreigners falling for China?
Learning from French history to finance theUS deficit. What could go wrong? upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm…
Breakingviews - Scott Bessent debt plan has awkward historic echo reut.rs/4eX26vK
I am making my way to Beijing next week. Message/Email me if you like to catch up!
I don’t have a good feeling about the world economy now.
Given that the trade “deals” Mr. Trump is making are not a formal trade agreement, let alone a free trade agreement, WTO Most Favored Nation rule would require Indonesia and Vietnam to grant zero tariff to ALL countries.
We are living in the dumbest timeline humanly possible.
So can #ASML now start selling EUV machines to China again? Asking for a friend 😀
Breaking News: Nvidia said the U.S. government had approved sales of A.I. chips to China, three months after the Trump administration had shut them down. nyti.ms/4eNr5Sd