Carlos Avendaño
@Untiroalaire
Skin in the game. Moneyballin'. Notes to self
Map of Fragility, Robustness, and Antifragility, by @nntaleb (2011)
Private Equity is engaged in buying artisanal semi-businesses, turning them into businesses, propping up the numbers while destroying them —then, hopefully, destroying itself.
Aaron @levie is one of the clearest thinkers on AI agents in the enterprise. Some takeaways from his podcast with @martin_casado: • AI agents are making unstructured data useful, opening up verticals like legal, healthcare and consulting to software for the first time. • Most…
reading @JohnDCook's math posts feels like Lewis Carroll's mazes, luring you down rabbit holes you didn't know you misunderstood: johndcook.com/blog/2024/07/0…
The only probability that matters is the unobserved higher-order dimensions. Multi-dimensional multiplicative unobserved interactions and connections. That's where the real damage is done. Known risk isn't real risk. The real risk is the unknown unobserved higher dimensions.
Read @ckaiwu's papers. Always. The latest one is on Buffett’s Intangible Moats: sparklinecapital.com/post/buffetts-…
This answer from @SecretCFO is maybe my favorite piece of written material in the world. The writer (a finance VP) asked how to get a voice at the decision making table. Read carefully. This answer will apply to you when you ask this question one day, whether you're in finance…
“The key to the ‘capital cycle’ approach is to understand how changes in the amount of capital employed within an industry are likely to impact upon future returns.” —Capital Returns, Edward Chancellor chart via @EightTrack180
reread and share with those in need. It saved me
If things are not going great for you right now, or perhaps they are bad, or even terrible, then read this, right now, and #stayinthegame. My sixth annual repost. albertbridgecapital.com/post/stay-in-t…
Reading is pattern recognition: an author’s words and structure reveal intent and logic. Like quant analysis, each insight compounds, building conviction for sharper decisions. * Grok didn't like my stock (pattern recognition) to flow (conviction) analogy... will dig deeper
Robert M. Pirsig's definition of quality in his own words youtu.be/0Bo3qaJIZUQ?t=…
"people don’t really do the math.. Most aren’t willing to take 1000 shots for the 0.1% payoff. They’ll write it off as risky lottery chasing. But you just need to be able to afford those 1000 shots.. 1000 tries at 0.1% chance has a 63.3% probability of success." @visakanv's…
"The entire [LLM] architecture seems to excel at producing verisimilitude rather than veritas."
What we call 'reasoning' in LLMs is next-token probability estimation over bounded context windows, not a system that stores or checks discrete premises. There's no built-in proof engine or formal inference mechanism. Contradictory statements aren't detected or resolved: they…
Datos hiring en tech 2025, report Signalfire tl;dr signalfire.com/blog/signalfir…
Trevanian's definition of "shibumi" (via @ChrisBegg) reminds me of, @nntaleb's flânerie Epicurus's ataraxia Munger's chutzpah Odysseus's metis Agnelli's sprezzatura Csíkszentmihályi's flow Bruce Lee's "be water" Camarón de la Isla's duende
Marathon's CCT focused on supply side: 2000-2002 dark fiber glut (95% unused) vs WDM et al. 2025-202? dark data (~70% of servers unused) vs DeepSeek et al.
