The Budget Lab
@The_Budget_Lab
The Budget Lab at Yale is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
One potential effect of a more politically-captive Fed is that they have even less influence over the long-end of the curve than normal: cuts to policy rates are offset in market pricing by rises in inflation compensation & term premia. So, less relief on mortgages & auto loans.
The Trump administration is demanding the Federal Reserve slash interest rates. Ironically, that would likely cause your borrowing costs to rise, says @ernietedeschi bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
This "Big Beautiful Bill" got even worse: The latest "Impromptu" with Dana @Milbank, @RameshPonnuru and @NatashaRSarin. wapo.st/46qiz9o
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief... 1/10
New @The_Budget_Lab analysis featured in @politico's Weekly Tax by @berniebecker3: "Yale’s Budget Lab has new research out today finding that most people will continue to benefit from the simplified tax system enacted in 2017. But provisions like “no tax on tips” likely will…
We @The_Budget_Lab have pout together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
Listen to @ernietedeschi on @NPR discuss the latest on tariffs with @NPRinskeep npr.org/2025/07/28/nx-…
Fully exempting home sales from tax would represent yet another inframarginal transfer to older, richer Americans. Something close to 90% of homeowners are already exempt. The only people paying tax are worth around $6M on average. Some new @The_Budget_Lab calculations below:
“The 20.6% which is the highest since 1910 for the United States, that is an August 1st effective date,” Yale University director of economics @ernietedeschi says on a study about the United States tariff rate.
This week, Donald Trump's fight with Jerome Powell continued, with a White House official first telling Bloomberg News that the president was preparing to fire the Federal Reserve chairman, and then Trump quickly taking the threat back. Executive director of The Budget Lab at…
“One of the biggest surprises so far has been the weakness of the $$. It was textbook: If you put in place tariffs, it’s going to put upward pressure," said @ernietedeschi. “That has major implications for the passing through of tariffs to prices.” politico.com/newsletters/mo…
Great to be with @abbydphillip @CNN NewsNight last night on the dangers of politicizing the Federal Reserve. Watch here: youtu.be/z86GA4OnRbw
Full @The_Budget_Lab report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state… Thank you @AnaSwanson @nytimes for highlighting our work. nytimes.com/2025/07/14/us/… 10/10
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
Great to be with @CNN this morning on @The_Budget_Lab latest tariff analysis: 18%+ effective tariff rate, thousands of dollars of losses for consumers, massive uncertainty for businesses. youtube.com/watch?v=ywb1AF…
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief... 1/10
Full @The_Budget_Lab report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state… 10/10
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
New @The_Budget_Lab tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
Today at 8:10am ET. Tune in to @BloombergRadio to hear @NatashaRSarin talk with @tomkeene and Paul Sweeney about the One Big Beautiful Bill. youtube.com/watch?v=f39oHo…