Rob Wood

@Robwoodecon

Chief U.K. Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

London

Joined February 2024

60Following

646Followers

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Rob Wood Retweeted

Ian Shepherdson@IanShepherdson · Jul 22

Some media reporting that the Philippines will "pay a 19% tariff". No, they won't. American purchasers of goods from the Philippines will pay the 19% tariffs. The burden falls on the buyers, not the sellers. Thank you for your attention blah blah blah

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · Jun 2

Cautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along.

Robwoodecon's tweet image. Cautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along.

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · 18 h

UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.

Robwoodecon's tweet image. UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.

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Rob Wood Retweeted

Pantheon Macro@PantheonMacro · Jul 18

"Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation" @Robwoodecon buff.ly/T7M61iW #PantheonMacro

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · Jul 17

Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet. Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.

Robwoodecon's tweet image. Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet.

Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · Jul 17

Surprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in-line with their typical pattern. The question is why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, the trend now seems to be for easing job falls

Robwoodecon's tweet image. Surprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in-line with their typical pattern. The question is why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, the trend now seems to be for easing job falls

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Rob Wood Retweeted

Pantheon Macro@PantheonMacro · Jul 16

"The ONS’s BICS survey is a goldmine of information" @Robwoodecon buff.ly/3cPf9mG #PantheonMacro

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · Jul 8

The worst-kept secret in the world? UK public finances are on an unsustainable path. Yet every time the OBR states that fact it seems to count as news and comes as a surprise..

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · Jul 7

Shall we call it the estate agents' PMI?

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · Jun 4

Here's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer.

Robwoodecon's tweet image. Here's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer.

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · May 21

The MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now.

Robwoodecon's tweet image. The MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now.

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Rob Wood@Robwoodecon · May 8

Market shifts view on future cuts ft.com/content/d43d2b… via @ft Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the MPC’s voting pattern and statement were “too cautious for us to be able to retain a call of a back-to-back rate cut in June”.

Robwoodecon's tweet card. US president promises ‘breakthrough’ deal with UK will be first of many as he signals optimism on China talks

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Rob Wood Retweeted

Pantheon Macro@PantheonMacro · Mar 31

"Forecast review: Shadow of tariffs hangs over improving economy" @Robwoodecon ow.ly/PigG50VrjA0 #PantheonMacro

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