Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
New @CookPolitical: Just how many more seats could Republicans squeeze out of Texas? Possibly up to five, shifting the map from 25R-13D to 30R-8D (below). But not without a VRA lawsuit and disruption to existing GOP seats. Full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
NEW @CookPolitical: Echoes of 2018? Dems are well-positioned to take back House control in 2026 owing to a partisan intensity gap, but the underlying factors (economy, party images) are different this time. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…
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The Cook Political Report’s PollTracker is back! Our curated polling aggregator calculates a rolling average of Trump’s overall approval rating as well as his standing within key demographic subgroups. Learn more: cookpolitical.com/survey-researc…
Latest @InsideElections podcast episode is up w/ me, @JacobRubashkin and guest Dave Wasserman @Redistrict talking about....redistricting! I know you're surprised and want to listen. insideelections.com/news/article/p…
Will be on @cspanwj at 8am ET to talk @CookPolitical's new 2025 PVI report among other topics (recent polling & 2026). Bonus points for on-topic callers.
SUN| Cook Political Report Senior Editor David Wasserman (@Redistrict) discusses the latest analysis of the electorate and shifts in political polarization. Watch live at 8:00am ET!
NEW podcast! By this measure, America is actually a little less polarized these days. @Redistrict talks with @amyewalter about our new Cook PVI report. Listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/by-…
New @CookPolitical: If there was ever a time for congressional Republicans to pass legislation that would rein in the president’s tariff authority, it would be now. @amyewalter explains why they won't: cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…
What were our big takeaways from the new Cook 2025 PVI report? Listen to @Redistrict, @amyewalter & @ercovey on the latest Editors Roundtable: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/edi…
Almost 70% of R’s in the House have been elected since Trump. Also, Trump outran many of these members in their own CDs.
On Tariffs —- Speaker Johnson told Rs to stand resolute and hold the line on the Tariff policy and that they must trust Trump and his instincts because he delivered the greatest economy in the history of the world in his first term, and he can do this again — they we just need to…
Trump's trade of college+ white voters (numerous in swing seats) for working-class nonwhites (mostly in safe Dem seats) has reduced the GOP skew of the House map. Today's median House seat is R+1, down from R+3 a decade ago. Full report @CookPolitical: cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/intro…
New @CookPolitical: the number of swing seats (R+5 to D+5) has rebounded from 82 to 87, as several previously strong Dem Hispanic majority districts became more competitive in 2024. But that's still down 47% from 164 swing seats in 1999. cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/intro…
Here are the CD”s that showed biggest shifts to GOP/DEM from 2020-2024. Note, the biggest GOP shifts are in minority-majority seats, while biggest Dem shifts in places that saw increase in white, professional population.
NEW @CookPolitical: The 2025 Cook PVI℠ for all 435 congressional districts is now available. A big takeaway: district-level polarization slightly declined in 2024, and the House map is less skewed towards Rs than it was in 2017. Read my full analysis: cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/intro…
Dems reduced Trump’s margin tonight in FL-1 by 22 points and in FL-6 by 16. Fwiw, Elise Stefanik’s NY-21 was Trump +20.
I've seen enough: Susan Crawford defeats Brad Schimel in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, preserving liberals' 4-3 majority.
Democrats are performing so well in low-salience races that you almost wonder if they’d be better off not advertising in special elections at all. The Dem base is extremely attuned to off-cycle races, even when they get no coverage. As spending goes up, more Republicans tune in.
Walton is >95% counted, and Patronis is winning it by 44%, 15% worse than Trump there. Escambia is 90% counted, and Vailmont still leads by 5%, tho it’ll get redder after final ballots. Trump won Escambia by 19.5%. VERY high chance Dems outrun by more in FL-01 than FL-06.
I've seen enough: Jimmy Patronis (R) defeats Gay Valimont (D) in the #FL01 special election.