Radnor Capital

I created a Substack account and posted my first piece: "2024 Review & 2025 Outlook" - link below and in my X profile. I plan to use Substack for the same reasons I use X - to learn and to nurture my obsessive curiosity. Please consider subscribing to my Substack if you enjoy…

Irrational moves in stocks like $KSS and $OPEN are a sign that the bull market is in the home stretch. To be clear, this is an observation more than a timing mechanism. The home stretch is often a lucrative one when coupled with elevated risk appetite and animal spirits.

Just a reminder that the long end of the curve will go up, not down, if Trump fires Powell.

Healthy read-through from banks and in-line CPI is enough to maintain bullish market narrative and risk appetite. Though a lot of earnings reports still ahead. Always interesting thoughts on the $JPM conference call: "It obviously matters a lot for us as a company, but we…

This is a far more nuanced conversation but I'm curious where people agree / disagree with the following: Advancements in AI will almost certainly lead to greater wealth inequality. While the pie will grow dramatically and everyone will benefit, those in the capital economy will…

Spotify $SPOT was a layup at a mid-20s FCF multiple, and for a while, the move in the stock was all upward estimate revisions. Very reasonable price to pay for an industry leader, with accelerating fundamentals, and a utility-like purpose in consumers daily lives. Recently we’ve…

AI infrastructure demand appears alive and well. For context, @MichaelDell said on @BG2Pod: "we took orders in the first quarter for over $12B [of AI servers] and last year we shipped about $10B." More tokens, when combined with high-quality data, efficient model design, and…

I'm not sure the FOMC minutes are as dovish as markets suggest. There were a couple of participants open to a rate cut at the July meeting, but we knew that already. More interesting: “some participants saw the most likely appropriate path of monetary policy as involving no…

Thoughts on the market and current economic picture... The Street is modeling >12% EPS growth in 2026 for the S&P 500 (~$297). This follows ~11% expected in 2025 (~$264 from ~$237). For context, the market is trading at ~23.5x 2025 and ~21x 2026 earnings expectations. While this…

For those interested in nuclear power, I recommend listening to @ScottNolan on @ShawnRyan762. Scott is the CEO of General Matter and discusses uranium enrichment as it relates to both national security and meeting future domestic energy demand. I've always viewed great companies…

This will push long end yields higher, not lower. Lack of Fed independence will too. Can’t have it all.

The weaker dollar (down ~10% vs. a basket of other currencies) is getting a lot of attention right now. Over long periods of time I prefer to value USD based on the dollar price of gold. Looking at it this way, a weaker dollar is nothing new, and the trend has accelerated.

Deflationary signals in the housing market...KB Home $KBH said the average price on new home orders fell ~8.5% y/y. Q2 investor presentation below: s201.q4cdn.com/124745054/file…

The White House and stock market appear to be celebrating the US / China agreement a 3rd time after the Thursday night announcement. First two were in Geneva and London. Certainly signals complacency...

Insane that Apollo posted this. Their “average annualized return” metric shows that Private Equity and Private Credit are outperforming the S&P 500 over 1, 5 and 10 year periods. Except that “average, annualized return” is a meaningless, made up metric that has nothing to do…

The bulls have regained control of this market. S&P 500 is now trading ~23x 2025 consensus earnings estimates. This cycle will end in euphoria and we aren't there yet. Inflation appears under control (for now), which supports a more dovish Fed, Middle East risk also appears under…

“The AirPod business at Apple $AAPL is 3x open AIs revenue base today” - @thomas_coatue

Powell subtly implying that the Fed would be cutting by now if not for Trumps tariffs. Impressive tact.

Treasuries haven't seen a meaningful bid on weak economic data and geopolitical headlines and that should tell you how worried we should be about our deteriorating fiscal position.

“I’ve always thought late stage was a euphemism for big check. There are people willing to put $300 million in an AI company that’s 12 months old - that’s not late stage, it’s just big check.” - @bgurley

Why are scaling laws a less popular AI conversation topic in Q2 vs. Q1?