Gavin Baker

The benefits of trade broadly benefitted the American population via lower prices while really hurting small segments of America due to plants being closed. i.e. Americans really like it that flat screen TVs are crazy cheap. The 2024 election showed that Americans also do not…

Given the massive - and increasing - importance of test-time compute and post-training RL shown by Grok-4’s absolute dominance, being the low cost producer of tokens is more important than ever. As an aside, this is the first time in my career as a tech investor that being the…

Per @zerohedge, the latest data shows the largest monthly reduction in Social Security payments in history. Is this correct? There is some seasonality in the data - mostly Decembers - but not enough to explain this drop. There are other moving pieces with the timing of…

Insane that Apollo posted this. Their “average annualized return” metric shows that Private Equity and Private Credit are outperforming the S&P 500 over 1, 5 and 10 year periods. Except that “average, annualized return” is a meaningless, made up metric that has nothing to do…

Lepton and opening up NVLink are both really smart. Especially NVLink. Opening it up makes life so much harder for the dominant ASIC providers. Scale-up networking >> software >> compute. i.e. NVLink more important than CUDA imo.

The fact that humanoid robots can learn from watching videos of humans performing tasks seems like it will decisively settle the humanoid vs. task specialized robot debate for now.

AI coding agents like Cursor might add more NNARR than the entire SaaS industry (ex MSFT) in the second quarter. Should also say that I enjoyed the @FundaBottom write-up of Google which sparked this thought.

Super interesting. Anecdotally, most VCs are seeing companies grow faster with fewer employees over the last 2 years but this is the first concrete data I have seen.

Important risks to monitor: Deliquencies trending up more so than in 2022 and the mildest of resurgences in inflation. The latter is especially important given how bonds are trading.

Just learned that some of my colleagues are very effectively using Grok and Gemini to “vibe-code” data functions. Kinda cool.

What are the odds that the “Clarks” can become a “Jordan” like franchise? I think non-zero and suspect NBA players would wear them. Everyone seems to think new CEO is exceptional, just strange that they haven’t leaned into marketing her more.

🙏 on behalf of the @Atreidesmgmt analyst Foxy, who is a star. Well deserved.

Interesting thread