ProfTalmadge
@ProfTalmadge
MIT professor & Brookings senior fellow ⎮ Foreign policy, military ops, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army ⎮ mostly on Bluesky now
Do adversaries find nuclear no-first-use pledges credible? I examine this question in a new @IntSecHarvard article w/ Lisa Michelini & @NarangVipin. Spoiler alert: history does not inspire optimism.... direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…
It's almost like America needs an Indo-Pacific economic policy that's integrated with its overall grand strategy. ft.com/content/57e10c…
More evidence that US efforts to coerce China in a Taiwan conflict by closing Straits of Malacca unlikely to be successful wsj.com/world/china/ch…
"The fact that, according to the USAF, Israel did this without the help of clandestine USAF tanking is remarkable." Yes, it really is. Further testament to sophistication of IAF operations against Iran. twz.com/air/u-s-denies…
Then: Epstein File is deep state conspiracy, Houthi attacks must be met with force, Zelenskyy is going to start WW 3, NATO is a scam Now: never mind
Interested in major power competition? Small states navigating a complicated world? The intersection of IR & comparative politics? Asia? This @CarnegieEndow publication is for you:
This new @CarnegieEndow paper offers a framework for understanding how major power competition plays out within "swing" states and a set of implications for US foreign policy:
“I think he’s gonna get it together,” Trump said of Hegseth. theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
I'm old enough to remember when Trump was lecturing Zelenskyy about gambling with World War III ft.com/content/b66f03…
"The total size of the existing MOP inventory is classified, but Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said at a hearing before members of the Senate Appropriations Committee on June 26 that it is currently being expanded." twz.com/air/new-fuzes-…
The US ignoring Ukraine to focus on Asia has led Asia to focus on Ukraine.
⚡️ North Korea to send up to 30,000 more troops to aid Russia's war against Ukraine, CNN reports. kyivindependent.com/north-korea-to…
A 1-2 year delay being considerably less than the delay created by the JCPOA.
The Pentagon believes Iran's nuclear program has been degraded by 1 to 2 years, the Pentagon spokesperson tells reporters.
Funny how that works: it is indeed hard for DOD to prepare for war in Indo-Pacific (its stated priority) when White House keeps launching major operations (Houthis, Iran) in the Middle East. defensenews.com/pentagon/2025/…
US has cancelled 8,000-odd rounds of 155mm shells for Ukraine. That is 20% of current MONTHLY production. How that would have materially affected US readiness in a serious way is hard to see. And that's before getting onto 25 Stingers and 92 AIM-7, which are being phased out.
Source has just confirmed to me a list of what the US withheld fm Ukraine w/o warning: From Eu depots Missiles AIM-7 x 92 PAC-3 MSE x 30 AGM-114 Hellfire x 142 GMLRS x 252 Stinger MANPADS x 25 AT-4 grenade launchers x 125 From US depots 155 mm rounds (M795) x 8,496
Short new piece by me on what the Iran-Israel War means for the broader Middle East & Indo-Pacific, plus commentary from other @BrookingsFP colleagues
What are the global implications of the US strikes on Iran? Brookings experts break down what the operation means for the region and the world: brook.gs/45RdzKK
Military action is graded on a curve. Example #65,485. Netanyahu (2025): We set Iran's nuclear program back by 2-3 years! Netanyahu (2014): "Virtually all the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program will automatically expire in about a decade...it's the blink of an eye ."