Patrick T. Brown
@PatrickTBrown31
Head of Climate Analytics @IBKR; Adjunct faculty (lecturer) in Energy Policy & Climate @JohnsHopkins; Sr. Fellow @TheBTI
Prediction markets can represent the best collective knowledge about our energy and climate future. interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…
Here's another matching set. <--- media take underlying research --> c.c.: @PatrickTBrown31 @TedNordhaus
The decentralized wisdom of markets > a handful of academics with strong incentives to make the most catastrophic claims possible
The dynamic where media reporting on research is misleading and the research itself seems deliberately obscurantist is precisely the situation where prediction markets can be useful in clarifying our collective best understanding of where we actually stand and where we are…
The dynamic where media reporting on research is misleading and the research itself seems deliberately obscurantist is precisely the situation where prediction markets can be useful in clarifying our collective best understanding of where we actually stand and where we are…
Left: What the media said about a big new Nature study on yields. Right: What the authors' analysis actually predicts. Climate impacts researchers are, once again, seemingly deliberately misleading readers and journalists to create a false impression. @lrntex
Left: What the media said about a big new Nature study on yields. Right: What the authors' analysis actually predicts. Climate impacts researchers are, once again, seemingly deliberately misleading readers and journalists to create a false impression. @lrntex
“This sounds not great until you remember that background yield trends are very great.” Also great is this entire analysis by @lrntex and @atrembath.
In which me and @atrembath LARP as @PatrickTBrown31 to explain that the big new Nature study doesn't say what the authors or media say it does. What does it actually say?🧵 breakthroughjournal.org/p/will-climate…
Also, on this note, "Mamdani Holds a Commanding Lead in The IBKR Prediction Market" from @JoseTorresEcon interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…
A new preprint research out of @VanderbiltU, Cutting et al. 2025: “Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?” “Results are in alignment with research on “Wisdom of Crowds” theory, which suggests a large group of people are often accurate in…
Relevant to point out that this is not a new research question or a new conclusion. Take, for example, this textbook chapter from 2013 from @JustinWolfers et al. "We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information,…
A new preprint research out of @VanderbiltU, Cutting et al. 2025: “Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?” “Results are in alignment with research on “Wisdom of Crowds” theory, which suggests a large group of people are often accurate in…
There's no such thing as chemical-free food. DNA? Chemicals. Water? Chemicals The air we breathe? Chemicals. What matters isn’t whether something is a chemical, but rather whether it’s harmful. And that depends on the dose & composition, not whether its artificial or "natural".
The American people have made it clear—they want real food, not chemicals. Together with @USDA @SecRollins + @US_FDA @DrMakaryFDA, we’re holding the food industry accountable and driving a nationwide effort to Make America Healthy Again.
Corroborating @RogerPielkeJr's summary here, Zhang et al. 2022 also have some nice plots illustrating that both observations and models indicate that globally, extreme rainfall is and will continue to increase, but flooding (as quantified from extreme streamflow) should stay…
Precipitation Paradox? How climate advocates exploit flood disasters rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/precipitatio…
2025 Hurricane count seasonal forecasts: Compare prediction market probabilities (tinyurl.com/2ud3hbu7) to leading seasonal forecasts (artemis.bm/2025-atlantic-…) 1950 – 2024 annual average # of hurricanes: 7 2025 Seasonal forecast average # of hurricanes: 8 Prediction…
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I used to use a 'tip-bucket' analogy to teach the theory for how we expect precipitation to respond under warming when the flux into the atmosphere (evaporation) increases at a smaller rate (per degree of warming) than the atmospheric capacity for water vapor.…
S. Rahmstorf @rahmstorf says more extreme precipitation will be offset by less light precipitation Ad homs aside, I'll host guest posts from @rahmstorf & @RSarava on why we should not expect to see changes in annual precip vs why we should expect to see changes in annual precip
Some content from my Heterodox Academy 2025 Conference talk on problems within the climate science 'knowledge generation system' that lead to an incomplete picture, and how embracing prediction markets can help reorient the emphasis toward the production of the most useful…