Owen Winter
@OwenWntr
Political data journalist @TheEconomist (personal views) he/him
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
Not sure why Britain having a great 1990-2007 should be counted against us now
Since 2008, the UK economy has seen the most severe growth-slowdown of any advanced economy.
Three hypothetical polls put a Corbyn-led party at an average voting intention of 11%. If they manage that it would be a huge disruption of Britain's party system. But it's also worth saying hypothetical polls can be misleading: CHUK-TIG also started at ~11%...
Actually, Mamdani only lost the very lowest (<$50K) and highest income ($150K+) segments of the electorates to Cuomo. Mamdanj won pretty much the entire spectrum of the middle class (by NYC standards), $50K - $150K.
Thats all well and cool until you realize Zohran lost the low income voters and won the upper class voters
Divergence of Harris and Biden shows that net favourability isn't the be all and end all, though
Among domestic politicians, the best rated are: RFK Jr, June 2023 (+19) Obama, October 2024 (+17) Sanders, May 2025 (+10) DeSantis, May 2023 (+9) And worst: McConnell, August 2023 (-51) Santos, December 2023 (-50) Bob Menendez, July 2024 (-39) Chris Christie, June 2023 (-38)
Among domestic politicians, the best rated are: RFK Jr, June 2023 (+19) Obama, October 2024 (+17) Sanders, May 2025 (+10) DeSantis, May 2023 (+9) And worst: McConnell, August 2023 (-51) Santos, December 2023 (-50) Bob Menendez, July 2024 (-39) Chris Christie, June 2023 (-38)
Diddy has the lowest net approval of anybody YouGov/The Economist has asked about since 2022: Diddy -85 Harvey Weinstein -70 Vladimir Putin -67 OJ Simpson -62 R Kelly -59 Kanye West -59 Hunter Biden -56 Mitch McConnell -51 George Santos -50 (Individual's lowest figure shown)
22% favourable, 31% unfavourable is pretty normal for someone in his position, I think, as someone only known to the public as "NYC leftist". By comparison: Mamdani 22 / 31 Adams 15 / 39 (YouGov, February) Cuomo 17 / 50 (YouGov, March)
Zohran Mamdani holds a 22% favorability rating among Americans, according to a YouGov poll.
18% as an initial ceiling is very low
18% of Britons say they are likely to consider voting for a new left-wing party led by Jeremy Corbyn However, this is less than would consider voting for the existing major parties and has caveats... 🧵