Arian Modarres
@NoCapAnalytics
Sports, models, and betting for @BRotoFantasy. Statistics grad by way of @Columbia and @GWtweets. 90% of stats are noise, including this one.
PSA for my small (but growing) twitter followers. I’m excited to announce that going forward, my models will provide @BRotoFantasy win probabilities, totals, and recommended bets. If you haven’t downloaded their app yet, do yourself the favor, and let’s get this spread.
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"Wow, Japan is so orderly and safe, it must be because of their homogenous population" Well...maybe there's something else going on there
Psychiatric beds per 100,000 residents, worldwide comparison. America is..a little behind
Iranian liberals when collapse of the regime causes a 30 year civil war that kills 13 million people instead of liberal democracy
The mullahs have to go, I just hope innocent civilians, especially children, don’t die in the process. The youth have already paid a price for the incompetence and stupidity of the mullahs. They should die before any child. They had their chance at life and ruined it for everyone
Mark Levin was at the White House today, lobbying for war with Iran. To be clear, Levin has no plans to fight in this or any other war. He’s demanding that American troops do it. We need to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons, he and likeminded ideologues in Washington are…
The biggest Iranian blackpill is accepting that Iran isn't this first-world country full of geniuses and talent repressed by mullas, but that it's actually a bog-standard third-world brown country with the same problems as all brown countries (despotism, stifling bureaucracy,…
most people never generate meaningful variance in their lives. they just orbit whatever local maxima they landed on by chance. but if you’re actually stuck, variance is the only way out. i’ve been thinking a lot about how to deliberately create that variance. the problem is,…
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we…
It's also important to understand that the tariff rates that foreign countries are supposedly charging us are just made-up numbers. South Korea, with which we have a trade agreement, is not charging a 50% tariff on U.S. exports. Nor is the EU charging a 39% tariff.
sports analytics summed up... - 3 is worth more than 2 - make the bats hit the ball farther - move the defenders to where the offensive players hit it - try to gain yards on 4 plays rather than 3 - shoot the ball closer to the net - hit the golf ball closer to the hole
once you learn how the sausage is made in your industry, some of the glamour falls away once you've worked in three or five industries, you realize it's all sausage, humans have never produced anything that wasn't sausage, and if you think you see non-sausage— nope, sausage
had dinner with a friend tonight & we landed on this: the idea that you’ll meet someone on a dating app who genuinely shares your value structures is now basically very unlikely. real alignment happens in shared environments where people do things together—not in a context…
meta turning a gen ai team into a clown car of overpaid “leaders” is the perfect microcosm of big tech’s dysfunction rn. the irony of an american company trying to reverse engineer chinese innovation while drowning in their own bloat is just chef’s kiss.
Connor McDavid’s the best player in the world. If the refs aren’t going to stop this from happening I’m fine with how 97 reacted. 100% fine with it.
Super Bowl otw
The #Bears have parted ways with director of football analytics Krithi Chandrakasan.
This is brutal. Sorry Patriots fans (Titans fans knew)
the complementary statistic to “teams who ran the ball 40+ times in a game are 155-2”
When fatherlessness happens via a death of the father, child outcomes are pretty similar to two-parent families. This indicates the issue is not "fatherlessness" itself.
Do you have these controlled for fatherlessness, too?
If we adopted Asian grindset as our national ethos American cultural dominance throughout the world would immediately end. Almost nobody raised by a "tiger mom" is making good movies, music, writing well, etc. The computers are fast enough, we need art.
The reason top tech companies often hire foreign-born & first-generation engineers over “native” Americans isn’t because of an innate American IQ deficit (a lazy & wrong explanation). A key part of it comes down to the c-word: culture. Tough questions demand tough answers & if…
FanDuel execs watching 11 of 13 favorites win on Week 6
FanDuel and DraftKings shaving millions off their revenue forecasts because NFL favorites keep winning What happened to the league of parity?
It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right.
Correlated parlay tidbit: for NFL, the average correlation between a team winning and their QB going over (or under) his passing yards prop is virtually nil. More early passing yards to gain the lead is offset almost perfectly by fewer late passing yards to hold the lead.