Mr. Orange
@Mr0rangetracker
Born, went to kindergarden, primary school, high school, now university. Loved football and global politics ever since primary school.
#ISI always had the possible way out of declaring itself a caliphate. This would mean a global split in the jihadist movement.
Fourth thread: Al-Jawlani’s dispute with Abu Muhammad al-Adnani (fall of 2012) 🧵
#Suwayda + everything that happened is an unexpected gift to #IS BTW. Jawlânî lost face, tribal fighters up in arms in a sectarian conflict, and the cherry on top - Israel actively supporting Druze militias. I expect a recruitment drive + suicide attacks there within six months.
Incredible that a couple of (pro-)Israeli accounts actually mention responsibility to protect when talking about #Suwayda while their "most moral" army commits daily massacres, other war crimes, and in all likelhood genocide in #Gaza. They are on Hijrî's drugs or sth. worse.
Third thread: Al-Jawlani’s first year as leader of al-Nusra & the early tensions with the Islamic State of Iraq (summer 2011-summer 2012) 🧵
Second thread: How al-Jawlani was chosen by al-Baghdadi to lead Jabhat al-Nusra (spring-summer 2011) 🧵
Once again a must-read thread by @alleyesonjihad x.com/alleyesonjihad…
Second thread: How al-Jawlani was chosen by al-Baghdadi to lead Jabhat al-Nusra (spring-summer 2011) 🧵
The Damascus Church Attack: Who Is Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah? - Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin), Washington Institute for Near East Policy (@WashInstitute): washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Still, I believe the two years of rules-for-thee-but-not-for-me conflict will come around to bite both Israel and Western Europe. Not this year, maybe not even this decade, but not too far in the future either.
Based on how Irân and its allies have not shown a lot these past years, I somehow doubt that there are sleeper cells in the West ready to strike. Not saying that there won't be small stuff, but nothing TV shows imagined during the past decades since 9/11.
In the inaugural piece, @abdsayedd analyzes the Taliban’s ban on Afghans fighting in Pakistan, unpacking the political-religious rationale and implications for Afghanistan–Pakistan bilateral relations. oxuswatch.com/content/dynami…
I have to say, I expected more from issue 500 of al-Naba'. The usual 8 pages, and nothing interesting from the archive.
Do read this by @alleyesonjihad x.com/alleyesonjihad…
My latest for @akhbar : “Conflicting Loyalties: The Inside Story of Al-Jawlani’s Divorce with Al-Baghdadi”: akhbaralaan.net/news/exclusive…
My latest for @akhbar : “Conflicting Loyalties: The Inside Story of Al-Jawlani’s Divorce with Al-Baghdadi”: akhbaralaan.net/news/exclusive…
Would not be surprised if Hama city also falls to the insurgency at this rate...
What a day. A munâsir calls me dumb, and an absurd guy calls me a regime shill : D nitter.poast.org/RashTheHorse/s… Thanks for the flowers @RashTheHorse
Indeed. We know surprisingly few things about his 'Irâqî days. #IS never really nuked him. x.com/BroderickM_/st…
It is surprising more hasnt been written about #Jolani (Im working on this in my research at Oxford). Not only in capturing #Aleppo but going all the way back to 2003 in #Iraq..Jolani is important to understand x.com/APHClarkson/st…
Another one on #HTS x.com/p_vanostaeyen/…
For those referring to Hayat Tahrir as-Sham as al-Qaeda Tore Hamming and I wrote this back in 2018 The True Story of al-Qaeda’s Demise and Resurgence in Syria lawfaremedia.org/article/true-s…
The main problem for the rebels in Aleppo at the moment is that they're armed and ready for a fight but wherever they go they can't seem to find any.
Key point here. I'd even apply this to 'Irâq. If PMF-militias try to help out Assad there will be more room for #IS. And juicy convoys travelling thrrough historic ambush sites. x.com/azelin/status/…
One thing to consider re: potential Assad regime counter-offensive: could take away more forces/assets already floundering in its fight against IS in the badiya in central Syria. Don't be surprised if IS, which has gotten stronger this year, is able to take advantage in the east.