Mick Bransfield
@MickBransfield
Kingston Chase Consulting, LLC. Data Analytics & Prediction Markets. I don't care about your hot take, just tell me something interesting I don't already know.
Brian Quintenz, President Donald Trump’s nominee to head a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) suddenly central to the legal sports betting industry in the United States, is scheduled for consideration by a Senate committee on Monday.
Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen was asked about prediction markets today. His response was unworried, and insightful as to why Kalshi, Polymarket, et al haven't embraced the sport of kings: covers.com/industry/churc… @Covers
This might be the best summary of the business models for prediction markets.
survival guide for venture investors allocating to prediction markets supercycle: - if startup is pushing novel scoring rules or AMM designs, ie some derivative of LMSR, you can prob assume they're at least 6-8 months away from any kind of meaningful execution - user generated…
Polymarket and Kalshi downloads and DAUs are down >90% vs election night per Apptopia Shows challenge of building a steady revenue stream. But lots of potential options for $$ (sports, tokens, corporate intel) and both have runway fortune.com/2025/07/24/pol…
Hot off the presses - Kalshi's Third Circuit brief. Looks like the "associated with" argument is finally taking flight. drive.google.com/file/d/1uOiZO-…
Bonkers UMA Nonsense, Vol 73🧵 A NASCAR race took place Sunday. $10,000 in trades on Polymarket. Denny Hamlin won. Market paid out. Easy. But behind the scenes, this event is the largest & dumbest dispute in UMA history. $60,000 was on the line, 6 TIMES the underlying market.
This explains yesterday's copycat jibe.
Effective immediately, Kalshi and xAI are partnering to bring Grok to prediction markets. Two of the fastest growing companies in America are now on the same team. @xAI 🤝 @Kalshi
Despite PredictIt settlement, Kalshi IGRA lawsuit, & Polymarket coming back to US, this could be the week's most important development in prediction markets.
Super excited to announce the Google Trends API alpha test. This new API will help Researchers, Journalists, and Developers to understand Search behaviors and patterns. What a challenging & fun journey! 🤓 developers.google.com/search/blog/20…
.@CFTC Staff Issues No-Action Letter Regarding Event Contracts: cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…
BREAKING: Three federally recognized California Indian tribes have sued Kalshi and Robinhood in CA federal court, alleging that the two companies are unlawfully engaging in sports betting by offering sports-outcome event contracts on the tribes’ Indian lands in violation of IGRA.
.@Polymarket is making a return to the U.S. after its latest acquisition. CEO @shayne_coplan gives his take on the rise of prediction markets, the company’s road to profitability & more: cnb.cx/46Vg3In
In Berlin or DC? Both cities are hosting IRL forecasting/prediction market meetups in the next two weeks: Berlin this Sunday 27th by @JSchwarz91 and DC by @pjchougule and me next Thursday 31st. Details and RSVP at bit.ly/forecastingmee…
“He's a good bellwether critic.” It was honestly such an honour to be profiled by Matthew Frank at The Ankler (@TheAnkler) about my scoring of the new #Smurfs film and the impact it had on the betting prediction market. theankler.com/p/smurfed-insi…