Michael J. Kramer

For anyone curious, I posted this to my website, showing how 1Q'25 went for me. It is not a solicitation or offer to sell any product or service. Being transparent in how I use my own analysis. mottcapitalmanagement.com/first-quarter-…

some deal

10-day realized vol is at 4.5, it hasn't gone much lower in recent years.

Here is a better picture of the margin debt to S&P 500 ratio at 52 to 1.

Margin debt tops $1 trillion for the first time

So Japan is going to invest 10%+ of GDP into the US.. that doesn’t sound right? No wonder rates are surging.

Even the bond market is excited about the 15% tariff! a 5-Yr JGB rate is rising 7 bps.

So i guess we aren't going to have a 10% tariff rate

*TRUMP: ANNOUNCES TRADE DEAL WITH JAPAN - $550 INVESTMENT AND 15% TARIFF

Gold Eyes Breakout as Yields and Dollar Falter mottcapitalmanagement.com/gold-eyes-brea…

Gold Eyes Breakout as Yields and Dollar Falter mottcapitalmanagement.com/gold-eyes-brea…

I think it has more to do with rising commodity prices like copper than the Fed.

Market Pushed to the Max as Volatility Measures Hit a Wall Ahead of Earnings mottcapitalmanagement.com/market-pushed-…

Panic bid for NDX at open looks so unhealthy. All the price action happens in a few minutes, unrelated to information flow 12 hours before (or after). Plus, most of institutions don't trade open.

1/4 People keep asking why the market continues to go up, w/ no care (seemingly) for @POTUS' tariff threats, particularly the reciprocal ones set to take affect 8/1. And, after a chat w/ @MichaelMOTTCM the answer appears clear. As we all know, a lower court recently ruled...

It's time to get in the studio.

stocks and correlations are rising at the same time.

Realized vol. probably isn't going to be able to get much lower.