Joe Twyman
@JoeTwyman
Co-founder and director of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll. Former Head of Political at YouGov (2000-18). "Housewives' favourite pollster" - The Times.
Representative sampling delivers data that accurately represents and reports the opinions of the population it is trying to research. Given a number of recent examples I feel compelled to send out this slide from my 'Making Numbers Count' presentation on evaluating samples.
It appears like today is (yet another) good day to retweet this. And apparently I also need to add 'Eurovision public voting' to the list.
Representative sampling delivers data that accurately represents and reports the opinions of the population it is trying to research. Given a number of recent examples I feel compelled to send out this slide from my 'Making Numbers Count' presentation on evaluating samples.
Does that include speeding motorists? Serious question. Speeding is one of those crimes where the vast majority of those breaking the law are generally otherwise law-abiding, and it has implications for public perception of police priorities.
NEW Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin: “No crime is too small to be prosecuted and dealt with.” More now at @GBNEWS.
Your regular reminder that headlines saying "Poll shows this specific policy will cost this party this number of seats at the next election" have an appalling track record when compared to reality. As has been seen time and again, voting is far, far more complicated than that.
The difficulty the government faces is that even if numbers DO fall (and it's a big IF), the public could still hold the perception that the deal is having no effect and / or numbers are not falling enough.
Migrant deal will be seen as failure if numbers don't fall, @ChrisMasonBBC writes bbc.in/3IljUV0
Good news! I have been discussing Keir Starmer and Labour’s first year in Downing Street, on TWO podcasts: Chopper’s Political Podcast with @ChristopherHope: shows.acast.com/choppers-polit… Or (more realistically and) Independent Thinking with @bronwenmaddox: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/one…
May I gently suggest that 'would' is doing a LOT of heavy lifting here. And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK. To quote noted survey methodologist Han Solo: "Good against remotes is one thing. Good against the living? That's something else."
A Corbyn-led party would win 10% of the vote, taking 4pts off Greens and 3pts off Labour: via @georgeeaton newstatesman.com/politics/uk-po…
Do the American public support the US bombing Iran? While interesting as a comparison, previously reported public opposition is now largely irrelevant. Many Trump supporters, both in the general public and media, will change their mind and fall right in line.
Can you hear the people sing?
Trump to attend 'Les Miserables' at revamped Kennedy Center, where sales have fallen reut.rs/45CIvOX
Despite recent difficulty in the polls, this is one of the few remaining hotel rooms within half a mile of the Labour Party Conference this autumn.
NEW EPISODE: Get to the beach! @DuncanWeldon and @RobDotHutton are joined by @JoeTwyman as they try to wake Britain from its Phony War slumber in 1958's Dunkirk! Search for "War Movie Theatre", wherever you get your podcasts.