Iskander Rehman
@IskanderRehman
Senior Political Scientist @RANDCorporation. Applied history, defense strategy & Asian security. Author "Planning for Protraction", "Iron Imperator."
In my latest essay in my applied history series for @WarOnTheRocks I argue that Sully's so-called "Grand Design" for pan-european strategic unity is eminently worthy of rediscovery (2/9) warontherocks.com/2025/07/toward…
The EU is moving to lower the price cap on Russian oil *unilaterally* That breaks from the original concept, which called for G7 consensus on any changes It’s the first time I can recall the EU getting this far out ahead of the U.S. on sanctions policy 👏🇪🇺
Europe gets tougher on Putin. It slashed the oil price cap to $47.60, kicked 22 Russian banks out of SWIFT, sanctioned Chinese and Indian entities for helping Putin, and permanently blocked Nord Stream revival WSJ: Trump must follow with 500% oil tariffs, $300B in asset 1/
« In their twilight years, both Mao & Deng Xiaoping fragmented authority to ensure that subordinates served as counterweights (…) They became oracle-like, pontificating on ideology from behind a curtain. Over time Mr Xi may come to shape such a system » economist.com/china/2025/07/…
An excellent review of an excellent book on British grand strategy by @w_d_james networks.h-net.org/group/discussi…
"And once the brain has developed a taste for offloading, it can be a hard habit to kick. The tendency to seek the least effortful way to solve a problem, known as “cognitive miserliness”, could create what Dr Gerlich describes as a feedback loop." economist.com/science-and-te…
Fascinating.
Today’s Russian papers on the economy: “More & more enterprises plan to cut output.” “Russia is shut off from technological advances. It’s naïve to think everything we need we can make ourselves or get from China.” #ReadingRussia
One senior western official briefed on internal UN discussions said China was expanding its presence in “the institutions of the multilateral world order . . . and then using that influence to slowly turn them to their own world view”. on.ft.com/4f57TPS
It feels like a no-brainer for the EU to pursue a strategic partnership with the CPTPP, focusing on digital trade, secure supply chains, areas of regulatory alignment. We need a Euro-Atlantic-Indo-Pacific bloc of nations to flexibly advance common interests in trade and security.
Touchdown in Osaka! The 🇪🇺🇯🇵 Summit tomorrow is timely. The world is changing rapidly. For partners like us, it means becoming even closer to face the realities of our time. And shape a world that reflects our values: Open economies. Secure societies. And fair rules.
Devastating: Extreme right polling neck-to-neck with chancellor Merz’s CDU for 1st time (Merz has promised to halve support for the AfD); SPD numbers continue to decline. The coalition badly needs to get a grip on domestic policy issues (record debt, government dysfunctionality)
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • Forsa für RTL/n-tv: CDU/CSU 25 % | AfD 25 % | SPD 13 % | GRÜNE 12 % | DIE LINKE 12 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 6 % ➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ ➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa…
"You might disperse 1,000,000 men over these immense areas & yet only provide more prey to the dominant Power. On the other hand, these conditions will be reversed when the balance of sea power and air power changes.." Churchill discussing the Indo-Pacific theater in early 1942.
I learned a lot from this piece on Syria's Druze community in @EngelsbergIdeas . It's a great example of how deep historical understanding can help us make sense of otherwise exceedingly complex contemporary sectarian and geopolitical developments: engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the-d…
My message to Canberra and Washington: There's a clear and mutually-acceptable landing zone for the AUKUS review—focus on preparedness, which is in everyone's interests. afr.com/policy/foreign…
Churchll responds to Britain's new ally, Stalin's demand that UK open a second front in western Europe: "To attempt a landing in force would be to encounter a bloody repulse, & petty raids would only lead to fiascos."
"The highest-rated language for attractiveness? Despite the supposed allure (at least among Anglophones) of French and Italian, it was Tok Pisin, an English creole spoken in Papua New Guinea. The lowest? Chechen." economist.com/graphic-detail…
Australian friends--what would be the best book on the evolution of Australia's threat perceptions during the interwar years?
Big news in EU China relations this morning. The EU has passed its 18 package of sanctions after Slovakia dropped its veto. 2 Chinese banks to be listed. In Brussels this month, Wang Yi repeatedly warned Kallas that China would retaliate if this happened. Watch this space...
In addition to 49 Abrams tanks, Australia will also deploy a Wedgetail to protect aid corridors. Time for Europeans to think about what they would do to support Australian, Japanese & Korean friends, should a major military conflagration erupt in Asia. theguardian.com/world/2025/jul…
A new review of past instances of U.S. retrenchment provides insights into how allies might respond to shifts in strategy today. bit.ly/4lTDu9A