Brian Gordon
@GordonBrianR
Strategy, innovation, (meta)science, organization, cognitive science
Capital allocation efficiency, economy-wide has profoundly benefited from the emergence and scaling of Type II error minimization intermediaries (VC) to the mix (public market investors and HFs are mainly about Type I error minimization:).
What finance related opinion do you have that will have people like this?
Private capital markets are better than public markets, despite transparency and liquidity differences, because GPs have distinctive capabilities and returns can therefore have persistency. Private markets are probably better at price discovery than public markets too.
What finance related opinion do you have that will have people like this?
Investment banking services are a commodity, full stop. There is no differentiation apart from network centrality (qua distribution reach, brand). Clients don’t pay for insight, skill, knowledge, or expertise. They pay for execution and brand halo/signaling.
What finance related opinion do you have that will have people like this?
Finance is an important functional element of the economy, directing savings to high-return use opportunities, but short-termism and myopia are problematic and sometimes industrial policy should address state-level policy goals.
What finance related opinion do you have that will have people like this?
I don’t know. This pretty much nails the business model. I’ve seen worse takes on Wall St.
Groundbreaking analysis from Citi
Rationalist and post-rat stuff is cognitive science cosplay isn’t it?
You see, aliefs are quick and automatic whereas beliefs are slow and deliberative. You have these two different systems: system a and system b. Human cognition arises out of these two systems. One operates ‘fast’, the other ‘slow’. One is rational, the other habitual.
You see, aliefs are quick and automatic whereas beliefs are slow and deliberative. You have these two different systems: system a and system b. Human cognition arises out of these two systems. One operates ‘fast’, the other ‘slow’. One is rational, the other habitual.
Rationalists have figured out how to update their beliefs but they have not figured out how to update their aliefs
I mean, if we are going to think outside the box here, let’s pay suppliers in stock. Let’s allow firms to pay taxes with stock.
“So you can add back stock compensation to Adjusted EBITDA? Why don’t companies pay all their employees in only stock and just add it all back then?”
Interesting. I would want to see how this disentangles from index inclusion as a signal that the firms/sector had matured and has lower E[g] within the context of the shift from public to private capital mkts.
New theory of investment-less growth: Rising indexing has made the avg firm’s stock comove much more with the market (despite unchanged fundamentals). Managers, following MBA textbooks, interpret higher comovement as a higher cost of equity —> weak investment & missallocation.
You worry about AGI. I worry about whatever this thing is 🤯. We are not the same.
This microorganism has chainsaw like mouth. The rotifer uses fast moving cilia to create a vortex. This enables it to sweep in food particles like algae. Inside the organism we can also see a jaw-like structures that grind the food.
Someone should develop a self-equilibrating distributed information-processing system that takes into account heterogenous knowledge, plans, and judgment and rewards adaptation and innovation. Seems potentially useful.
Late stage communism: China has abundant capacity but scarce profitability Late stage capitalism: America has abundant profitability but scarce capacity A rebalancing equation would find some optimal level between profitability and capacity
How much of this is the result of current account deficits and recycled capital? How much due to Keynesian policies? How much locally imposed constraints on supply?
Oops
pretraining is an elegant science, done by mathematicians who sit in cold rooms writing optimization theory on blackboards, engineers with total absorb of distributed systems of titanic scale posttraining is hair raising cowboy research where people drinking a lot of diet coke…
Don't know who needs to hear this, but materials discovery was never about randomly mixing things in a lab and happening upon transistors by chance. There are layers and layers of understanding that any ML approach could really benefit from.
Its basically a breach of your fiduciary duty if you run a company and don't put Sydney Sweeney in your ads.
If you think reasoning is just generating intermediate tokens you don't know what reasoning is.
Slides for my lecture “LLM Reasoning” at Stanford CS 25: dennyzhou.github.io/LLM-Reasoning-… Key points: 1. Reasoning in LLMs simply means generating a sequence of intermediate tokens before producing the final answer. Whether this resembles human reasoning is irrelevant. The crucial…