Kevin O'Neill
@ExtraHalfPoint
The final adopter of Sports Betting Twitter, circa mid-September, 2022.
The (likely) originator of "CAWs boost takeout for the rest of us from 20% to 30%" is Steve Crist, the horseplayer's leading advocate. Responsible for withholding tax reform, fractional betting, advanced multi-race betting strategy and more. Full podcast:youtube.com/watch?v=TzMt3R…
Most casual horseplayers don't know what CAWs are and how they are ravaging the parimutuel system from Saratoga to Del Mar and all points in between. Due to CAWs the effective takeout YOU are battling is not 20% but 30%. I recorded an amateurish whiteboard video to explain.
What the hell? I really thought pro athletes make too much money to think about the relative table scraps of point shaving & prop fixing. Figured college only. Per his Spotrac chart if this is real it is $10m guaranteed GONE. Additional 2 years $18m is club option $$.
BREAKING: Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has been placed on non-disciplinary paid leave as part of MLB's sports-betting investigation, sources tell ESPN. Clase is the second Guardians pitcher on leave tied to the investigation, joining right-hander Luis Ortiz.
Excellent question. And why stock analysts ask Draft Kings about their average # of parlay legs. People are worse, and algorithms are better, the more steps there are. So CAW groups crush trifectas, superfectas, and Pick 3s, 4s, 5s, & 6s. The more steps the bigger their edge.
Got it. Thank you, sir. One more question (sorry). What are the most CAW plays? Are they exactas, P3s, etc?
Most casual horseplayers don't know what CAWs are and how they are ravaging the parimutuel system from Saratoga to Del Mar and all points in between. Due to CAWs the effective takeout YOU are battling is not 20% but 30%. I recorded an amateurish whiteboard video to explain.
Del Mar 7th race #1 is 19-1 when the race begins, 8-1 when he finishes a good 2nd 6-5 favorite won. I'm sure the CAWs mutilated the exacta, tri and super. You could see the move coming in the multi-race will pays, but not quite that dramatically.
This ‘26 tax year gambling tax change foolishness is dead. Will be killed off in the fall. Time to refocus on horse racing allowing CAWs to destroy horse betting and what major sportsbooks do in their quest for holds of 15% in a game where they have a 4.54% theoretical edge.
NEW: Some Republicans push to undo gambling tax hike they passed in Trump's megabill House tax-writing W&M Chair @RepJasonSmith told me Wednesday it was a “mistake” by the Senate and needs to be undone. TED CRUZ wants it gone: "None of us knew about it" nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
In the following race, the finale, #2 Adios Cole goes from 15-1 to 9-1 after the gate opens, wins, pays $20.40. CAWs just wreaking havoc as the gates open.
Bing Crosby at Del Mar won by #9 Lovesick Blues. Last couple minutes went from: 49-1 35-1 28-1 gate opens 19-1 The CAWs knew.
Bing Crosby at Del Mar won by #9 Lovesick Blues. Last couple minutes went from: 49-1 35-1 28-1 gate opens 19-1 The CAWs knew.
In the Jim Dandy, Race 10 at Saratoga, Baeza (#1) is getting a LOT more support than anticipated vs. Sovereignty (#5) in the multi-race wagers dominated by the computer-assisted wagering groups. It is even narrower in the double, $32.50 to $22.70.

Nicklaus-Bill Russell Tiger- Michael Jordan
🏆⛳️🏌️ Tiger vs. Jack Thoughts? (Via yudagolf/IG)
There have been almost a quarter million MLB games.
Nick Kurtz of the @Athletics is the first player in MLB history (rookie or not) to have 4+ home runs, 6+ hits & 8+ RBI in a game.
All the people looking for bets to make because Justin Fields (OMG!!! Justin Fields toe!!!) was injured 46 days before the Jets play an actual game reminded me why Warren Buffet doesn't let his people have real-time stock prices visible to them as they work.
Important preseason reminder "He's being carted off" in the preseason is not the same thing as "He's being carted off" during the regular season!
It's a @BBisntBoring on the Go: Lucas Giolito talked to Rob Manfred today about the growing problem with gambling-induced threats in MLB Listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bib…
I can’t imagine this is true, but I’m sure nobody would believe me that a little splash of black coffee or cold brew into a Diet Dr Pepper makes the best soft drink. Bojangles is best in class but the non-McChicken biscuit, the more expensive filet one, is surprisingly good.
You all know I wouldn’t say this lightly: Right now, in this moment, the McDonalds hot and spicy McChicken biscuit is better than Chick-fil-A’s.
Here are the percentages of how often these teams win the division in our simulations. BUF 72% BAL 70% DET 54% TB 53% WAS 52% SF 51% KC 48% JAX 42% Of the teams that we project second, the most likely to win their divisions are HOU and PHI.
Ravens, Bills, and… the Commanders?! 👀
So many QBs exhibiting leadership by getting their receivers together for summer workouts! So many players in the best shape of their lives! What a season it’s gonna be!
Yanks 4 errors last night. My u8 rec teams frequently made fewer than that. What a coach I must be!
Friday night both the Red Sox and Yankees had critical, game-influencing baserunning errors. A continuation of what has become a years-long pattern under Cora & Boone.
I never liked Guardians. If we can't go back to Indians, how about Cleveland Mediocres?
the cleveland guardians record