Eric Brewer

Some preliminary thoughts on the relationship between Iran’s nuclear program (the “nuclear crisis”) and the Israel-Hamas war and related dynamics (the “regional crisis”). 🧵 It would be too much of a stretch to say the current war is unfolding under the “nuclear shadow”…1/

“Despite Turkey being a party to the [NPT]….which legally prohibits Ankara from developing, acquiring or testing nuclear weapons, 71 percent of respondents believe Turkey should start developing such arms, with only 18 percent opposed.” middleeasteye.net/news/most-turk…

"Had Iran fired a few more large volleys of missiles, Israel could have exhausted its supply of top-tier Arrow 3 munitions, one of the U.S. officials said." wsj.com/world/israel-i…

And from a source. "To move beyond the current logic — where the snapback either expires or is triggered — there is a narrow window of opportunity for extension." -3-

" the signals from the Iranian side so far have been going in a direction that make us less optimistic that we can find a diplomatic solution." -2-

European diplomat. "Our main goal continues to be to find a diplomatic solution for the situation with Iran, but we are aware of the fact that 1/ time is running out and 2/... -1-

"Achieving this requires credible diplomatic engagement, full cooperation with the IAEA, and addressing our concerns regarding the stockpile." Reminder E3 and EU political director meet Iran DFMs tomorrow in Istanbul. -4-

An excellent, methodical takedown by the @AP of DNI Gabbard’s false claims the Obama administration politicized intelligence about Russia’s election interference. apnews.com/article/gabbar…

“There is no reason to imagine that an enlarged nuclear club would make the world more stable, or let America off the hook for the security of its friends.” economist.com/international/…

🧵 I've been writing something on the intelligence & national-security applications of frontier AI models. This is an experiment in seeing what one of them, OpenAI's o3-pro model, might be able to do in an area relevant to national security.

This narrative on snapback illegitimacy was long expected and is now in full swing. Curious to see if (when) Russia and China pick it up. To be clear, the narrative doesn’t hold water. Iran can’t just unilaterally decide that others are no longer party to the JCPOA. 1/

I suspect the threat of NPT withdrawal is less of a deterrent to snapback than in the past because a) Iran has already kicked out inspectors b) Iran can’t quickly weaponize today and c) growing skepticism among E3 that Iran would actually withdraw.

🧵How much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program? An analysis of Friday's reporting of the U.S. government assessment. I'll focus on the @nytimes, which was clearer than the earlier but confused @NBCNews story. (1/n)

In the past couple years leading up to the June attacks, Iran was often referred to by analysts (including me) as being a nuclear threshold state. Can we still use that label today? I can see arguments both ways.

It is sadly not surprising that DNI Gabbard, who promised to depoliticize the intelligence community, is once again weaponizing her position to amplify the president’s election conspiracy theories. It is appalling to hear DNI Gabbard accuse her own IC workforce of committing a…

It seems DNI Gabbard is unaware that the years-long Russia investigation carried out by the Senate Intelligence Committee reaffirmed that ‘the Russian government directed extensive activity against U.S. election infrastructure’ ahead of the 2016 election, and that it ‘used social…

The offer on table was a one-off extension of deadline for snapback. Deadline falls in October but it's possible it could be pushed back further if Iran -- and their Security Council friends in Russia and China -- agree to make that change. Iran was non-committal in response-3-

resumption of cooperation with the IAEA. There was some suggestion to on containing the stockpile of enriched uranium although it wasn't specific. Sources say the exact conditions would need to be worked out. -2-

In a call last night with @araghchi, E3 foreign ministers and @kajakallas put on the table the possibility of extending the deadline for snapback under the nuclear deal, according to sources. The asks of Iran were a resumption of nuclear talks with the US and E3 and...-1-