Birth Gauge
@BirthGauge
Tracking the global fertility decline
We are now halfway through 2025 and it's time for the monthly birth update. For the overwhelming number of countries that have provided data so far, 2025 will bring yet another significant decline of the birth rate.
Extremely low TFRs are now spreading everywhere. Andorra is the country with the lowest TFR in Europe with around 0.8 children per woman and citizens at 0.7. Its population pyramid is mirroring the one of South Korea - few children and elderly, lots of Gen Xers.
Andorra has been below 1 for some years already. And if you count only Andorran nationals it even went below 0.7 in 2023.
Life expectancy gains have slowed sharply in the past decade in Western Europe. The increase was just 1.1 years, less than half the progress seen in earlier decades. #demograpy #population #lifepan #Poland #Germany #UK #France #Italy
Belgian TFR (=expected children per women) dropped in 2024 to an all-time low of 1.44 (see @BirthGauge). I have never seen a Belgian TFR by municipality, so after bringing data together and making calculations... here we have it. What does it say? 👇🇧🇪🔁
Japanese fertility rate by prefecture in 2024. The southern fertility rate is higher than the north. However, no region has above replacement fertility of 2.1. Overall, Japan has a fertility rate of 1.16, making it on the higher end of fertility rates in East Asia.
Most Haredi Jews, in Israel and the USA, live in (what we would consider) over crowded apartments and tenements. It doesn't stop them from having one of the highest fertility rates in the world.
Housing in Singapore is abundant and costs locals very little, thanks to Singapore's generous and high-quality public housing system. Yet Singapore's fertility was just 0.97 in 2024. Apartments in high-rises aren't well suited for families no matter how affordable they are. 1/3
Catalonia reported a TFR of 1.08 children per woman in 2023, down from 1.10 in 2023. The TFR was 1.04 for Spanish citizens and 1.29 for foreigners. In the province of Barcelona, the TFR declined to 1.04, among the lowest of any larger metropolitan areas in Europe.
And another one: although not an independent nation, Aruba joins various other nations and territories in the Caribbean in natural population decline, reporting 820 births and 840 deaths for 2024.
Birthrates of the Caribbean: another (small) nation tips into natural decline. St. Kitts and Nevis reports 481 live births for 2023 and 482 deaths. Births have been in rapid decline since COVID, falling from 632 in 2020.
Mean population development 1981-2024: At the national level +17% Highest: Kempele +154%, Liminka +149%, Espoo +128% Lowest: Rautavaara -59%, Puolanka -56%, Salla -54% Clearly regional centers and their surroundings + the South have grown, but the rest is in absolute freefall.
A demographic map I'd like to see, might just make eventually myself, is what's the exact rate of freefall depopulation across rural #Finland. Even many agriculturally well-viable southern municipalities are observably trending linearly to literally zero population by 2100
Australia births in Sydney in 2024 down 9.4 % !!!!!!!! from 2019, in Melbourne down 8.2 %, in Brisbane down 5.4%
Fertility rates in Austria by country of birth of the mother. The TFR in Austria in 2024 was 1.31 children per woman, but it was 1.22 for Austrian-born women. The rate was lowest for migrants from Western Europe and highest among women from Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria.
Die Geburtenrate in Österreich nach Herkunftsland:
📉 Yesterday, I reported a striking fact: Mexico’s total fertility rate (TFR) in 2023 was 1.60, lower than the U.S. rate of 1.62. 🔗 x.com/JesusFerna7026… Will Mexico’s TFR keep falling? There’s a good chance the answer is yes. Let’s look at the state-level TFR data from…
🇲🇽 Mexico’s Fertility Collapse 📉 In 2023, Mexico’s total fertility rate (TFR) was just 1.60. Yes—lower than the U.S. (1.62, CDC). Yet every time I mention it, people react with disbelief. 🧾 Slide from Mexico’s official stats agency, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y…