More Births

Colombia has had one of the fastest fertility drops in the world, from 2.57 births/woman in 2000 all the way down to 1.2 in 2024. How can it be that Colombia, with a GDP of 7K per year, has a fertility so much lower than the US? And why is this happening across Latin America? 🧵

A social safety net that transfers resources from working-age people to non-workers makes sense, but within the category of non-workers we are massively overweight on "old people" relative to "kids and their caretakers."

Colombia also has: 1) Housing affordability crisis 2) Very late age for moving out of family/house 3) Very High experienced densities in its cities (But also in the rural áreas where people live in towns) 4) An anti natal culture stemming from years of public policiy

.@Nike releases a pro-family ad, signaling a cultural shift by calling having a family a “win”—more meaningful than any championship. We need more of this. Get married and have babies.

Since 1950, there have been only two countries on Earth that fell below replacement fertility and then achieved a lasting recovery. In my newest article, I explore what those two countries did and why we need what I call strong pronatalism.

"more $ does yield more babies … [but] modest [$] benefits in Mongolia & Kazakhstan don't seem like their main story … leaders were willing to … ask … mothers to have a lot of children & then reward them with status when they do" Yes, status is strong, but v. hard to move.

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