David Turver
@7Kiwi
Believer in freedom and democracy. Opposes authoritarianism. Investor in real assets. Man Utd fan. F1 fan. Author of Eigen Values substack.
Octopus Energy has been in the news with a potential separation of their Kraken arm at a valuation of £10bn, and demands for it to stop taking new customers because of an alleged £1bn regulatory cash shortfall. Have we seen Peak Pink Octopus (1/n)
Tagging the protagonists: @OctopusEnergy @g__j @ofgem @centricaplc
Octopus Energy has been in the news with a potential separation of their Kraken arm at a valuation of £10bn, and demands for it to stop taking new customers because of an alleged £1bn regulatory cash shortfall. Have we seen Peak Pink Octopus (1/n)
The British state won’t protect children from mass gang rape. But it will “protect” adults from hearing about it.
Starmer is determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
'Under the terms of the UK-US EPD, the UK has agreed to open its market to US agricultural goods, including a reciprocal tariff-free quota for 13,000 tonnes of beef and 1.4 billion litres of ethanol. The deal stipulated that agricultural goods would need to meet the importing…
We won't get productivity growth without cheap and abundant energy.
I think this chart from the FT is key to understanding the mentality of our politicians for the past 17 years. Those in power are convinced - in part because they’ve been told by technocrats - that a “return to normal” is coming soon. All they have to do is hang on, keep the…
Has anybody told @terrychristian that the UK got a better trade deal with the US than the EU managed? #brexitbenefits
Apparently the EU because of its size managed to negotiate a US trade deal which is a lot worse than the UK one Guess that trope is dead
Protest footage blocked as online safety act comes into force... "What appears to be emerging isn’t just a two-tier internet, but something subtler and more insidious: a default-off model of speech and expression, where access to lawful content is no longer presumed but withheld…
Last week, Energy Secretary @Ed_Miliband announced the Administrative Strike Prices for the upcoming 7th auction round for the Contracts for Difference subsidy scheme These represent the maximum prices he is willing to pay for each technology type. Or I should say, the maximum…
The general view of the UK economy is that it's been stagnating for decades now. But on some of the most important metrics it's actually going backwards...
The only thing he can do is bask in reflected glory because he's got no achievements of his own.
Champions! Congratulations @Lionesses — what a team. What a game. What drama. You dug deep when it mattered most and you’ve made the nation proud. History makers.
US - EU Trade After working hard to secure a deal with the USA, the EU will walk away yet again with a worse deal than the UK secured months ago. Bravo EU - you've yet again demonstrated the benefits of Brexit. news.sky.com/story/us-and-e…
Seems to me we currently enforce laws we don’t have (non-crime hate incidents etc) and ignore ones we do (from shoplifting upwards). No wonder the system is broken.
Hurrah! Yet more laws we don't enforce. Said no one. Not merely sinister, also incompetent.
If you enjoyed this thread, please like and share. You can sign up for free t read the full article on the link below (12/12) open.substack.com/pub/davidturve…
Kraken aside, the Octopus fundamentals don't look too good. Investors should beware private equity selling assets at inflated valuations, especially when there's a £1bn regulatory cash shortfall to cover (11/n)
Octopus Energy Generation mostly manages funds investing in green energy. The funds are quite secretive, but the only quoted fund, ORIT has lost investors 35% over past 5 years (10/n)
Captive think tank, Centre for Net Zero (CNZ) lost £0.9m in 2024, but this might be a small price to pay for CEO of CNZ, Lucy Yu to sit on Miliband's Clean Power 2030 Advisory Commission (9/n)
Octopus Energy Services that installs heat pumps, chargers, solar panels & batteries etc. also loses money & has negative assets. Heat pump maker Octopus Energy Heating also lossmaking with net liabilities. Claim of heat pump price parity with boilers by 2022 looks hollow (8/n)
It's not at all clear the new deal with BYD to offer a new EV with free charging for <£300/month will improve their fortunes, with the small print demanding the car is plugged in for 12 hours/day for 20 days/month (7/n)
The fundamentals of Octopus EVs look dreadful, losing more money than turnover and growing net liabilities (6/n)
Maybe the fundamentals of buying solar exports at 2X wholesale market rates (15p/kWh vs 7.3p/kWh) and paying customers to use electricity aren't that good (5/n)
The main energy supply business made losses 2019-2022, but was profitable in 2023 & 2024. We will have to wait for 2025 numbers, but Greg says they lose money on energy retail (4/n)