Will Marble
@wpmarble
Political scientist at @PennPORES | Occasional tweets about social science, cities, philly sports/politics, etc.
I recently updated this paper. The revision makes a stronger case for adopting the analytic lens of issue voting for studying coalitions. I think this framework is useful for understanding the effects of campaigns and media, as well as interpreting long-run realignments.
The white working class has steadily become part of the Republican base while whites w/ college degrees have become Democratic. In a new paper, I study the issue basis of this realignment, showing that both economic and cultural issues have contributed. williammarble.co/docs/EducPolar…
Very cool paper about how important social networks are in driving movement conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f2…
🚨NEW PAPER: Why are Members of Congress so extreme? We conducted a 4-wave panel of thousands of voters in 27 districts during last year’s primary AND general elections to trace polarization’s roots The results challenge conventional wisdom… and suggest lessons for parties🧵👇
We (@PriyankaSethy_, @MalikMashail and I) have a related finding based on CES data: starting in around 2016, immigration support among immigrants plummeted more than among any other citizenship group. Here, we plot shifts relative to people with no immigration background.
Instead, Latinos' views on unauthorized immigration shifted to be less supportive of a pathway to citizenship. Latinos' perceptions of both parties moderated, but a larger fraction of Latinos saw themselves as closer to the GOP on immigration in 2024 than did so in 2016.
Using French matched employer-employee data, I find: 📌 High-paying jobs are concentrated in big cities 📌 Low-paying jobs are everywhere 📌 Workers access high wages in large cities as they switch from low- to high-paying jobs over time
Since 2016, 1 notable pro-GOP shift has come from Latinos. How did Latinos shift towards a party taking strong positions against unauthorized immigration? @wpmarble & I use population-based panel surveys to help answer that in a new paper: osf.io/preprints/soca… Quick 🧵