Tech Fund
@techfund1
Former PM at major fund. Long term investor. Current research at http://techinvestments.io
Semis on Fire - TSMC, Broadcom & A New Niche Semi Winner From AI techinvestments.io/p/semis-on-fir…
TSMC shipped a whopping 3.7 million wafers last quarter. However, wafer shipments are still below the covid semi peak of Sept 22, meaning that all revenue growth since '22 has been driven by wafer mix - i.e. selling more N3 & N5 wafers vs N7 & N16 wafers.
Is the robotaxi market finally about to take off? 1. Tesla will 10x the parameter count of its self-driving AI model. FSD is already extremely impressive, so this could bring the model actually close to being flawless. Especially with the massive data set Tesla has, which is a…
SK Hynix taking up capex for this year due to stronger than expected HBM demand in '26
SAP is seeing 20 to 50% productivity gains with AI in coding, digital sales engagement and HR. SAP has always struggled with margin expansion as costs grew in line with revenues, but with AI productivity there is a clear bull case on margins. These are extremely sticky software…
Goldman modeling on Chinese Semicap name AMEC - heavy growth in Etch
UBS on OpenAI potentially moving away from $DDOG: We understand that OpenAI has at least two observability platforms, including a custom-built one for model monitoring and Datadog (and others) for monitoring how OpenAI’s products are interfacing with its GPU infrastructure.…
Netflix has started using AI to create special effects - 10x faster and massively lower cost. The AI generated a collapsing building in Buenos Aires, which otherwise would not have been possible with a show of this budget.
Account manager at neo-cloud Lambda: "No slowdown in Nvidia demand. Hyperscalers are trying to deploy as much Blackwell as they can. More available supply for H100, so pricing is coming down." (call this week via Tegus)
Key points from TSMC conf call: - AI is seeing a token explosion, TSMC is aiming to narrow the supply-demand gap. Not seeing a balance in the CoWoS market any time soon. - "We expect the number of new tape-outs for 2-nanometer technology in the first 2 years to be higher than…
ASML CEO bullish on litho intensity in DRAM roadmap with more EUV layers at next 3-5 nodes. This is v positive long term as AI is highly DRAM intensive with HBM.
ASML CEO: "The more customers use the High-NA tool, the more they like it. And this means also that the opportunity for insertion is, of course, growing over time because there's more and more data confirming that. Today is a phase where the customers are just qualifying the…
Director at Micron on why Samsung has been struggling in HBM with $NVDA
Director at Micron - HBM packaging yields have matured, capacity will catch up (via Tegus):
Chinese semi tool manufacturer AMEC is advancing rapidly - from Goldman: Management expects to quickly increase their product coverage in deposition tools, improving to cover ~80% of the products in 2026 (including tools in development, qualification or mass production) vs.…