Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
@rlmcelreath
Director @MPI_EVA_Leipzig. Bayesian evolutionary anthropologist. Mostly absent from this site while writing books and maiming code.
For the new kids in back: If you hate statistics, you'll love my free lectures. Putting science before statistics, from basics of inference & causal modeling to multilevel models & dynamic state space models. It's all free, made with love and sympathy. youtube.com/playlist?list=…
This is a good article and I agree with its argument for comprehensible research.
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07/0…
I updated this post with links at bottom that go into more depth on mechanistic and philosophical reasons for troubles in science reform
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07/0…
Good morning from London, where we start Day 2 of the @royalsociety meeting "The Future of Scientific Publishing". Yesterday, we discussed the problems; today, we're going to solve them all! #FutureSciPub
For the morning EU crew
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07/0…
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07/0…
everyone stop fighting and touch the fluffy belly (beware)
Every Mac knows what Rob Mac is going through
I said what I said.
Ppl asking me about Bayes and causal inference and I have nothing new to say but repeat myself below
Looking for a mind-growing distraction? How about my 3 part intro to Bayesian causal inference. It's like a condensed version of my book, 10 weeks of causal computation in 3 short blog posts. Take with plenty of water. elevanth.org/blog/2021/06/1…
A history of a popular cross-validation package. Very important aspect is that it is born out of desire to have DIAGNOSTICS that are theoretically valid and interpretable and computable. We need a lot more of this, in all parts of scientific workflow,
loo R package 10 years! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/06/26/loo…
Kinds of science True & Replicable: photoelectric effect False & non-Replicable: many priming results F & Replicable: bad analyses like confounded country-level regressions T & non-Replicable: badly documented experiments, unique observations I think there's a lot of F&R
Egon Schiele (12 June 1890 – 31 October 1918) Der Hafen von Triest, 1907
Cooking with Mischka: Pan-seared salmon (with rice and broccoli off screen). Mischka had some raw salmon already but wants MOAR
There are individual-group conflicts in all contexts. But academia is the one I personally experience in which people routinely justify doing the wrong thing because the right thing is hard or personally costly. We do the right thing because it is right, not because it is easy!