Reza Ghasemipour
@rghpour
Pre-doctoral Research Fellow @LSEEcon (@STICERD_LSE)
After inflation temporarily stabilized around 30% in Iran—thanks to the monetary aggregates control policy—it now seems to be surging again, showing that under persistent fiscal dominance, monetary policy offers at best a temporary relief.
As @ojblanchard1 points out, the bulk of the price response to tariffs might come from domestic manufacturers due to reduced competition. That's exactly what we found when we studied the China shock in the 2000s: xavierjaravel.com/_files/ugd/bac…
It is tempting to say that imports are only 15 percent of US GDP, so that the effect of higher tariffs on the price level will be limited. This ignores the fact that many domestic firms are competing, directly or indirectly through the supply chains, with foreign producers.…
Unfortunately, our structural macro model’s prediction for Iran’s economy last year proved accurate. Under Trump’s maximum pressure, it projected the USD/IRR exchange rate at 101 in spring 2025 (red line)—it's now 103, nearly 37% above the sanctions relief scenario (green line).
Do Trump’s new tariffs help the poor and hurt the rich? This paper challenges common wisdom, showing that lowering trade barriers has nearly identical effects across income groups—meaning no significant distributional impact! xavierjaravel.com/_files/ugd/bac…
A very cool paper that uses "micro data to answer macro questions", from a macroeconomic shock laboratory: Iran!
📝New working paper: Pricing Behavior and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Iran Consumer Prices
Curious about how AI is revolutionizing research methodologies—not just in economics, but across all social sciences? Read this amazing paper! 👇👇👇
1/ New paper alert 👇👇👇 Did you ever imagine having conversations with thousands of people to better understand their views, beliefs, etc? In a new paper with Friedrich Geiecke, we introduce an open-source platform to run robust AI-led interviews: xavierjaravel.com/_files/ugd/bac…
x.com/XJaravel/statu…
1/ New paper alert 👇👇👇 Did you ever imagine having conversations with thousands of people to better understand their views, beliefs, etc? In a new paper with Friedrich Geiecke, we introduce an open-source platform to run robust AI-led interviews: xavierjaravel.com/_files/ugd/bac…