punter
@punter_punts
trading
This took longer to play out to due to hebraic forces in June. I'm bumping this post to 1) laprun filthy bears 2) express caution. The time to acquire massive positions was weeks/months ago. Now is actually the time to start peeling, not opening fresh 10x longs.
Positioned long into mid-late April. I think you could get one more opportunity around/right after April 2nd to long, in which case I will add. Basket includes TSLA, HOOD, BTC, SOL, FARTCOIN. Even if you are mid-long term bearish, there are countless reasons to be long here.
the range i was looking at, top end being where this post was made warning about reversion move playing out. sunday futures opening at ath typically signal weakness for rest of the week, not surprising that equities are bleeding today. fomc mid week, tons of treasury +…
reversion move has played out - not ideal that the top range has been visited during illiquid sunday hours, would have preferred seeing that on a strong futures open. higher / maintaining top of range still very much in cards, just the oversold reversion is done
When you see OG writing a quality thread instead of shitposting, it’s time to pay attention
Ansem posted this at the start of peak memecoin mania last year, and since then we've had many coins that have met this criteria. Recently, we've kind of lost these types of coins/communities. As everything has become more efficient - the fun in trading memes has dwindled.
reversion move has played out - not ideal that the top range has been visited during illiquid sunday hours, would have preferred seeing that on a strong futures open. higher / maintaining top of range still very much in cards, just the oversold reversion is done
Crypto is presenting a meaningful reversion opportunity in the short term given its de-correlation from risk assets. Factor the price insensitive galaxy sales, combined with 4bn of scheduled treasury co. flows for next week and if equities cooperate, this gap should close.
agreed, supply overhang removed & a meaningful close to the saga. FARTCOIN is immeasurably bigger than its origins now. torn on my feelings towards Andy; I CTO'd GOAT with some others and there were some frustrating missed opportunities and missteps along the way. Later, I was…
I think today is a special day for fartcoin. A symbolic and meaningful moment where fartcoin was freed from the shackles of the fat little dwarf man they call Andy. I think this occasion calls for a special “Generational Bottom” post @DipWheeler
this is a great read but also my takeaway is “damn the investment trust trade went on for a very long time before it imploded”
What lessons can we learn about crypto treasury companies from the "investment trusts" of the 1920s?
Unfortunate state of onchain. "Narrative" coins became solved: people learned how to efficiently make money with them, it became too obvious. And money naturally ends up shifting to a game that is obfuscated. The game now is "who has better access to insider info". I…
There’s no such thing as an “organic runner” anymore. Virality means nothing, that coin wasn’t bundled. They don’t have supply control. I think they might do a crime candle. That’s what the chats are saying rn. How did we get here? We are so beyond cooked right now. Every fresh…
the capital responsible for moving alts & btc used to have overlap. when btc stalled, you could reliably expect the flows to rotate along the risk curve. nowadays, most people trading alts own no BTC, and the money moving BTC is treasury companies & sovereign funds. an…
What are we doing? Bitcoin has literally given us the most ideal possible sideways action for a memecoin / altcoin season and we just nuke everything..? The market is so much different than it once was..
Something you want to see during an uptrend typically: When a major pulls back (SOL) but its correlated betas do not outperform to the downside. Indicates risk appetite is there, and when the major eventually reverts upwards, there's a more violent reversion in the alts.
There’s a lot to learn from XRP’s run and its appeal to normies. It’s the platonic ideal of what a crypto token is supposed to be in their eyes. It allows the buyer to feel smart and early. It gives them an on paper interesting narrative with moonshot potential - wow banks are…