PR
@pjreddy
Former Buyside PM turned Private Investor. Following with a passion…Oilers, ND Fighting Irish, Longhorns, Wine and Stocks (especially REITs).
Holding in……$HR.UN. Trimmed some $M.CN at the open.
$HR.UN Investors are generally less patient and holding periods shorter than ever (5-8 months for retail), catalysts are helpful for extracting value. I wouldn’t hold $HR.UN for 5 or 10 years and just hope investors recognize the value being created by management.
$HR.UN management likely wants IFRS valuations whereas shareholders likely would take $16 as a take out. It’s very rare for a takeout to occur at a 85% premium to the last 10 trading days. Possibly it’s an asset sale at IFRS - very positive step fwd especially if it yields $4Bn.
I am suggesting that management likely wants $20. TPG and Blackstone are shrewd. There is a middle ground that I don’t trust management getting to. Prefer a little more transparency. Plus yes I would be happy with $16! I don’t trust Tom. $HR.UN
I think $20 is a fair value for the equity of $HR.UN. Cap rates are not crazy; portfolio is high quality & liquid/desirable (85%+). Embedded long-term calls on Bow and Wynford have a value imo which is not included in NAV. It will be interesting to see a deal get done.
Agree
US resi + industrial is close to ~70% of the IFRS NAV value. If they get full price for that my guess is a ~30% rally in the unit price. Retail apparently still relatively easy to sell which adds another 15%. Office at 15% but some of it is very good offices relative to peers.
Out of $CVE.to. Can’t trust they will do the right thing - repurchase stock aggressively and cut costs.
I think the $CVE.to (Cenovus) rumor might have some bite, that being said, it could lead to a hostile takeover of Cenovus Energy by someone. Lots of value to be extracted with low leverage and a bloated cost structure. #OOTT
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